** NBA Conference Finals **

[llabb]

Don't worry, Horn. "Guaran-tuq" doesn't have the same ring to it.

Before the Detroit-Miami game starts and we get involved following the game, I started thinking about the Dallas-Phoenix series as well. Bunch of Dallas supporters on this board, and you know the team better than I do. I wrote some of the following thoughts in a betting thread; does it sound accurate to you, or do I have it wrong?


The problem for Dallas in Game 1 is that they could not stay with their intent to slow down the tempo. Avery said pre-game that they could not run 'n gun with Pho, and he was right. Part of their problem was taking and missing too many 3's, leading to long rebounds and the Pho fast break.

Dal also gave up their advantage inside. Pho's "big men" did better than Dal's! Avery and Dirk clearly need to take a page from the Clipper game plan, particularly the Brand plan. Dirk needs to step up. 18 shot attempts is a crime.

Still, Dallas can handily win Game 2 if they make the right adjustments. They need to pound it inside, and Dirk needs to be more aggressive. They need to take fewer 3's, and prevent Pho from running the fast break. If they do those things, they will win.

Howard and Bell being out also affects things, of course, as does the impending return of Kurt Thomas. Bell being out hurts Pho more than Howard out hurts Dal imo, because while both are strong starters that their teams need, Dal is deeper than Pho. Pho only goes 6 deep now, including Nash and Marion who are still slightly gimpy. We'll be seeing a lot more of little used Eddie House, and they'll probably need to use KT quicker and more than desired.

[Vincent]

I thought Dirk played well. He went 20/20 or so, which means a lot of boards & putbacks. I didn't see him hanging around the 3-line, so I don't think much more could be expected from him. I also thought Dallas did a great job of getting into the paint. Didn't Harris get 487 layups? I don't think offense is their problem.

I think Dallas needs to keep Nash out of the middle of the floor. Their guards sucked on defense. Nash pretty much did whatever he wanted, which allowed everyone else to do whatever they wanted. Marion/Diaw had a field day w/ the pick & roll. I think defense is where they really missed Howard.

That said, who cares. Phoenix lost another starter, Raja. Dallas should still win. If Phoenix has to depend on House & Jones for a lot of production, I wouldn't be too worried.

Also, I read somewhere that Amare was actually doing some shooting around before Game 1.

[Phoenix1010]

Well, I agree with a lot of it, but not all. The Mavs don't have anything close to the inside presence the Clippers had. It's clearly not Dirk's strong point, and I wouldn't count on Damp or KVH coming up big down there.

Furthermore, the Suns have already seen two teams try to beat them that way, and they've adjusted. They're sagging down and clogging the lane on every possession and throwing weakside double teams at the post up player, and basically daring someone to take an outside shot. They're also rotating even better than the Mavs are. I think it will be hard to beat them exclusively in the post.

The way to beat this Phoenix team is obvioulsy with defense and rebounding. On offense, IMO, they have to keep attacking the basket. Phoenix actually has a great defensive gameplan right now and they're executing it well, their problem is that all of their players are terrible individual defenders, even moreso now that Bell is out. You have to spread the floor, attack them individually, and get that layup or open jumpshot, just like Phoenix itself is doing. But then you have to make sure to haul your ass back down the floor.

[llabb]

Good stuff. So do you still think Mavs win the series? Looks like a 7-gamer now.

I agree that the Mavs don't have the same inside presense as the Clips, but it still seems that Dirk could do more inside, either in the post or even if that's not his strong point, a short-to-mid-range jumper over the top of them. He's like 4 inches taller than anybody else on their team. The point is, 18 shots is not getting the job done, it needs to be more like mid-20's.

[Ryan Beal]

[ QUOTE ]
now that Bell is out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously this is a big blow to the Suns. I keep hearing that he's only supposed to be out for about 2 games, but this has the feel of an injury that could put him out for the rest of the series, unless it goes to seven. The problem for the Suns will be finding a way to get that deep without Bell. If they can do that, it will be one of the most impressive things I've ever seen in the NBA. At this point I still feel pretty good about my series predication.

[Phoenix1010]

At this point I wouldn't be surprised by anything in this series. I'd expect the Mavs to win just because they have the (much) better team. But the Suns style is just so hard to get a hold of that they really could beat anyone, especially now that they have homecourt advantage. They've really refined their fastbreak gameplan and added some great half court sets, and now they've even got some interesting defensive strategies. It could go either way, but I still favor Dallas to win the series, and probably before game 7.

I agree with Dirk taking more shots, but I'd really rather see him attack the basket than take jumpers. I know he's a great midrange shooter, but when Phoenix is going to shoot upwards of 55%, you simply have to maximize your own shooting percentage. Taking it to the rack will put Phoenix in foul trouble, which they can't afford, and put another offensive rebounder down there.

[Schwartzy61]

Can Miami miss a few more layups tonight? That's like 5 shots missed within a few feet of the basket...

[Hornacek]

At least we seem to be energetic tonight...

[Schwartzy61]

Tayshaun, the master of the self pass...I didn't think that was legal in basketball...

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
Tayshaun, the master of the self pass...I didn't think that was legal in basketball...

[/ QUOTE ]

obv the refs thought someone touched it.