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#231
10-25-2007, 12:55 PM
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Re: 25k at the 60s in 1 month challenge (Oct props)
it's at best a marginal shove, even if the remaining players call tight (9%) and the BB just calls 10%. All of them have to call just top 7.7% to make that one +ev by 0.07.
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#233
10-25-2007, 01:04 PM
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Re: 25k at the 60s in 1 month challenge (Oct props)
[ QUOTE ]
Are you joking? Even without antes this push is unexploitabale. Suzzer, why do you make ridiculous claims and then back down? Never met sg but he seems like a someone that doesn't deserve the constant hating you are giving him. [/ QUOTE ] That push isn't great without antes. With them, push away. As for suzzer... Maybe I shouldn't be singin' this song ranting and raving and carryin' on Maybe they're right when they tell me I'm wrong... NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH
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#234
10-25-2007, 01:35 PM
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Re: 25k at the 60s in 1 month challenge (Oct props)
[ QUOTE ]
Suzzer, why do you make ridiculous claims and then back down? Never met sg but he seems like a someone that doesn't deserve the constant hating you are giving him. [/ QUOTE ] There is absolutely nothing ridiculous about saying I would have a decent (say 33%) chance of making more in 4 weekends than he will in this quest. I played for about 5 hours Friday night (ran well), and afaik we're about even right now. If I make $3k this weekend I'd like my chances. If I lose $1.5k, not so much. I don't know why anyone is taking this personally, as obviously whether I do well on my end over that small of a sample is about 80-90% variance. Go back and read all my posts in this thread. I'm not a fanboy or a hater. I even said I was sort of rooting for the guy. As someone who's played possibly more $60s than anyone else on here (before this anyway), I'm just fascinated by this attempt and realistically discussing various aspects of it. Personally I don't think the best mega-volume SNG player in the world can 25-table the $60s during any time day or night for more than 5%, probably true roi is closer to 0%. It's nothing against sg. I just don't think the $60s regs make enough or big enough mistakes consistently. There's also a nasty dynamic that happens with the regs when you overexpose yourself to them. And I don't care how young or talented you are, that king of volume has to start wearing on you. And finally - personally any time I've ever set a money goal, I've failed horribly. When you're focused on the bottom line more than playing well, it can mess with your game pretty severely if you don't run well. I don't think there's anything particularly evil about stating that opinion. It would be cool to be proven wrong. If anyone can maintain the focus to do it, it's probably sg. I know I'd be running about -30% if I tried to do what he's doing.
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#236
10-25-2007, 01:36 PM
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Re: 25k at the 60s in 1 month challenge (Oct props)
[ QUOTE ]
were you at a kibbutz? Also, is this push standard: PokerStars Game #12834204626: Tournament #65130266, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2007/10/25 - 07:08:14 (ET) Table '65130266 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: BongBob (970 in chips) Seat 3: j.thaddeus (4320 in chips) Seat 4: spacegravy (2700 in chips) Seat 5: l337O (1125 in chips) Seat 6: nicosponsor (1355 in chips) Seat 8: Deman17 (1975 in chips) Seat 9: nfHoss (1055 in chips) BongBob: posts the ante 25 j.thaddeus: posts the ante 25 spacegravy: posts the ante 25 l337O: posts the ante 25 nicosponsor: posts the ante 25 Deman17: posts the ante 25 nfHoss: posts the ante 25 Deman17: posts small blind 100 nfHoss: posts big blind 200 *** HOLE CARDS *** BongBob: folds j.thaddeus: folds spacegravy: raises 2475 to 2675 and is all-in l337O: folds nicosponsor: folds Deman17: folds nfHoss: calls 830 and is all-in *** FLOP *** [2s 3h 2c] *** TURN *** [2s 3h 2c] [7h] *** RIVER *** [2s 3h 2c 7h] [Jh] *** SHOW DOWN *** nfHoss: shows [Js Ad] (two pair, Jacks and Deuces) spacegravy: shows [8d As] (a pair of Deuces) nfHoss collected 2335 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 2335 | Rake 0 Board [2s 3h 2c 7h Jh] Seat 1: BongBob folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: j.thaddeus folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: spacegravy showed [8d As] and lost with a pair of Deuces Seat 5: l337O folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: nicosponsor (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: Deman17 (small blind) folded before Flop [/ QUOTE ] Since I've been beta testing the real time nash ICM tool [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] I've been really suprised at some Ax push ranges. Much of the time during 100/200 it's ATo+.
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#237
10-25-2007, 01:59 PM
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Re: 25k at the 60s in 1 month challenge (Oct props)
If a good SNG player is 20/25 tabling it's not going to surprise me to see them making some thin shoves. Not trying to discount gravy's ability to play that many tables, just sayin.
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#238
10-25-2007, 02:11 PM
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Re: 25k at the 60s in 1 month challenge (Oct props)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The push looks a little light to me as well but not horrible. [/ QUOTE ] Hater. [/ QUOTE ] Not a hater, just wrong. With antes it's a +$EV shove vs any ranges(unless my SNGPT is somehow screwed up).
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#239
10-25-2007, 02:18 PM
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Re: 25k at the 60s in 1 month challenge (Oct props)
[ QUOTE ]
This may not last the weekend. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Heh. I won $1900 Friday night grinding 8-table sets over about 50 sngs. And I was down almost $1k to start. Exhausting. Luckily I was watching TV and getting a nice buzz, or it would have really been hell. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Because he won't listen to me. No one ever does. I just like to be able to say I was right when it's all over. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I should have bet him I'd make more money playing 8 tabling the $60s/$100s for a few hours on Fri. and Sat. nights over the same span. That would have been fun - could definitely go either way. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I can lose money in a month, or I can make $15k. Gravy's range completely covers mine IMO. [/ QUOTE ] All pretty hater-like.
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#240
10-25-2007, 02:27 PM
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Re: 25k at the 60s in 1 month challenge (Oct props)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The push looks a little light to me as well but not horrible. [/ QUOTE ] Hater. [/ QUOTE ] Not a hater, just wrong. With antes it's a +$EV shove vs any ranges(unless my SNGPT is somehow screwed up). [/ QUOTE ] i agree that it is clearly a shove. with that said, i dont think it is as good as shove as sngpt would leave you to believe. there is a pretty good chance of overcalls with stacks being kinda short and his hand is gonna stink if there are two callers.
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