crockpot's baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)

[rsigley]

wondering about the gary matthews jr bet

i had that one too but min of 140 games played

he's at 139 now and got injured in wed's game

if they don't pay that would suck

[paperchamp]

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he stopped the tout thing after 2 weeks or so

he didn't like all the pub and whatnot

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Oh, I heard he was also getting crushed the first week or so.

[Thremp]

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he stopped the tout thing after 2 weeks or so

he didn't like all the pub and whatnot

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Oh, I heard he was also getting crushed the first week or so.

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Crushed isn't even the correct word for it. What happened to him is insanity.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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he stopped the tout thing after 2 weeks or so

he didn't like all the pub and whatnot

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Oh, I heard he was also getting crushed the first week or so.

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yeah...he had a bad week or so in there

oh well...still made me plenty over the season

[crockpot]

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he stopped the tout thing after 2 weeks or so

his followers didn't like all the getting crushed and whatnot

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[paperchamp]

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he stopped the tout thing after 2 weeks or so

his followers didn't like all the getting crushed and whatnot

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Lol!. Nice to see you chime in Crock! Most people who pay for picks are too stupid to be betting sports. I'm sorry it didn't work out for you.

[crockpot]

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Lol!. Nice to see you chime in Crock! Most people who pay for picks are too stupid to be betting sports. I'm sorry it didn't work out for you.

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it happens

if i'm listing regrets for the season right now, spending 40k on mets futures that were +EV-at-the-time ranks far above the tout thing.

[crockpot]

some observations from the season now that it's almost over:

- the projections were really, really spot-on this year. as in, if you simulated the season a million times at the start of the year, with perfect information on how good every player is and how much playing time he would get, your projected team win totals would be off by more than the actual results from this year.

in other words, if you knew before the year began that prince fielder would hit 50 homers, chris carpenter would miss the season, and fausto carmona would lead the AL in ERA, you still couldn't beat the accuracy we've seen this year.

BP's projections have a standard deviation of 6.2 games this year, which is below the theoretical minimum. that's ridiculous, and it won't happen again.

- besides spending my winnings, the most satisfying thing about the results is that they bore out my predictions for WHY certain teams would be better or worse than vegas expected. that bodes well for next year.

the exception is the diamondbacks, and no matter how many articles you read "explaining" their success in the face of their negative run differential, the truth is that they've gotten very lucky along the way.

- i think that the major inefficiency in season-long futures is books underestimating the impact of rookies. guys like carmona, troy tulowitzki, and ryan braun were universally projected to make an impact, but their lack of any track record for major league success made them easy to ignore. it's hard to say what this means for next year until i see lines, but don't be surprised to see me banking on evan longoria or jay bruce for dollars.

[kyleb]

I definitely agree with your futures assessment. I hope to be a bigger player next year in futures, but for now, I'm riding out that 50:1 Diamondbacks bet and hoping for the best.

[AllinDan]

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Diamondbacks one tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiime

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