Ivey vs. Corey Pavin golf bet

[grando]

since I don't think it's come up yet:

being a 15 handicap doesn't mean that you average 15 shots over par on a course - it's probably 4 or 5 shots higher than that

I think this is important

[stinkypete]

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I am about a 10-12 handicap now (though I have played as low as a 4 in the past).

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I think the fact you used to be a 4 changes things somewhat. You've hit the shots, especially around the greens.

I think yer basic ham n egger 10-15 hcp will still struggle, and maybe shoot around par (say 73-74). I suppose if the guy is a decent putter ... hmmm.

Someone has to recreate this.

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if you think a 10 handicap will shoot over par scrambling 3 balls you are nuts

[fsuplayer]

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Even if Ivey is a 15 handicap AND gets three shots on each 'shot' I would bet it would be very close. BUT the pro wins a majority of the time.


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I am about a 10-12 handicap now (though I have played as low as a 4 in the past), and if I got 3 tries per shot from the reds, I would kill Tiger Woods. I would essentially never make a bogey EVER, and would be dissapointed with par on the majority of holes.

3 shots is such a huge advantage, its ridiculous. I have the opportunity to hit an iron shot off of every tee for safety, and still can reach most greens with an 8 iron or less on my second shot. Decent drives will leave me with a SW or LW into every pin with which I have 3 attempts to put close. The biggest advantage I think comes from putting. A 3-putt should be unthinkable, and 1-putts should be VERY common.

I would expect myself to shoot around -10 or so on average with these conditions. In a month or two when the course opens again, I think I'm going to try this.

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this is why i would never make this bet unless i was 100% sure the guy a) wasnt sandbagging and b) never had a much better handicap at one point in their life.

bc once again, i am probably a 10+ right now, but given a week of practice, id play better and would kill pavin given two balls.

that said, a geniune 15 handicapper who has never been better doesnt stand a chance.

[funkymunky]

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if you think a 10 handicap will shoot over par scrambling 3 balls you are nuts

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Okay, what would you guess the number of one putts are gonna be (even with 3 whacks at them)? And, even with 3 shots, how many times is a 10 hcp gonna get it close?

A 10 hcp shoots on average, around 85, right? I can see very few bogies (although they're not impossible), but I don't see where all the birdies are coming from.

So, I guess I'm nuts.

[stinkypete]

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if you think a 10 handicap will shoot over par scrambling 3 balls you are nuts

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Okay, what would you guess the number of one putts are gonna be (even with 3 whacks at them)? And, even with 3 shots, how many times is a 10 hcp gonna get it close?

A 10 hcp shoots on average, around 85, right? I can see very few bogies (although they're not impossible), but I don't see where all the birdies are coming from.

So, I guess I'm nuts.

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just to clarify, i'm still talking about this 5400 yard course. on a tough course he might shoot around par.

basically a 10 handicap is like a 3-4 handicap on this course. scrambling 3 balls, he's almost never going to make more than 2 bogeys a round (i would put the chances of 1 bogey or more at less than 50/50), and he's going to make tons of birdies. when you're constantly approaching from 100 yards or less, and you have 3 shots from each spot, its just really hard not to make birdies. breaking par is ridiculously easy.

[Wowliksom!]

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Anyone a 15 handicap on here that would be interested in taking this bet(that wasn't really good at one time in their life?)

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I used to be a 17-18 handicapper and would absolutely not take this bet! Golfers tend to overestimate their skill and generally don't know how good a PGA-pro is. A guy with 15 can not be consistent enough to win this bet. If you have a bad day with the irons you are dead against a pro even if you have 3 tries at every shot.

I used to be a pretty good junior tennis player and often gave handicaps were I started with -40 in every game against casual players. I was never even close to lose these matches. The difference in skill level is huge in tennis and guess it is about the same in golf.

[stinkypete]

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I used to be a pretty good junior tennis player and often gave handicaps were I started with -40 in every game against casual players. I was never even close to lose these matches. The difference in skill level is huge in tennis and guess it is about the same in golf.

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the difference in skill level isn't the question here. obviously pavin is way better. they're playing completely different games though.

when you're giving someone a 40-0 head start you're still playing the same game. they still have to win a lot of points to defeat you.

[Wowliksom!]

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I used to be a pretty good junior tennis player and often gave handicaps were I started with -40 in every game against casual players. I was never even close to lose these matches. The difference in skill level is huge in tennis and guess it is about the same in golf.

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the difference in skill level isn't the question here. obviously pavin is way better. they're playing completely different games though.

when you're giving someone a 40-0 head start you're still playing the same game. they still have to win a lot of points to defeat you.

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Consistency is the biggest problem for a 15-handicapper.

Regarding my tennis matches:

Sometimes I gave away a 5 points head start. -40 (me) +30 (him). Two points for him to win the game.

[stinkypete]

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Consistency is the biggest problem for a 15-handicapper.


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exactly. and someone who lacks consistency is EXACTLY the kind of player the scramble format is advantageous to.

if you suck at golf because you can only hit the ball 100 yards, but hit it straight every time, you're not gonna score well in a scramble.

but if you suck because 3/4 of your shots are great while 1/4 of your shots get you into trouble, you're going to do well in a scramble. someone who makes a "bad" shot 1/4 times, will only have to continue from his "bad" shot 1/16 times in a 2-ball scramble, or 1/64 in a 3-ball scramble. (that's assuming no correlation between the shots, obviously there is both positive and negative correlation for various reasons, so i won't try to quantify it)

[fsuplayer]

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but if you suck because 3/4 of your shots are great while 1/4 of your shots get you into trouble

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this doesnt describe a 15 handicap at all. more like a 6 or 7 or less.