2007 SEC Football Thread

[Russ M.]

Jeremy Finch out for the year.

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[Gregatron]

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Jeremy Finch out for the year.

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Sucks. Hopefully he can bounce back okay.

[Dr. Zoidberg]

Using quantitative models to definitively say team a is better than b seems rather silly when the resulting margin is less than a field goal. While these models are interesting and helpful, they fail to account for what happens the other six days of the week. If you give Urban Meyer a month to gameplan for a team he's already faced, I like his chances.

Case in point, were the Chargers really the "best" team last year or were they a team with a young quarterback and a notoriously poor playoff coach who were destined to find a way to lose the big game?

[TruFloridaGator]

MT2R, thanks for the analysis. You're one of the best posters on this forum & I certainly didn't mean you didn't have a statistical basis because I knew you did. What I meant to say is that the statistics can't be the only factor in determining who the best team is because there are many other factors involved. Florida had the edge in just about every other category other than the stats including coaching, clutch play, psychological preparations & we could argue a million other factors too.

Trying to project outcomes without being able to factor in a lot of things that really matter is fun but certainly not anywhere close to concrete.

Also, I never recall saying you attack UF & if I did I certainly did not mean that. You do a good job trying to be objective.

[TruFloridaGator]

I saw Bubba Caldwell on campus today, he seemed fine. I didn't see him run but no knee brace, walked fine & could even sit on the back of a scooter. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Just being cautious & he'll be back for Auburn.

[UATrewqaz]

I can totally see Miles leaving for Michigan.

1. Michigan is where his heart is

2. Deservedly or undeservedly, LSU fans really don't seem to like him all that much, despite winning a ton of games.

[FGators]

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The equivalent of College Football in the NFL would be New England, Indy, Chicago and San Diego all being in the same division. I used to be a big 10 homer but I have changed my mind. The SEC is simply head and shoulders above everyone except USC.

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I disagree...the Pac10 is pretty damn good

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This is a joke/level, right?

I mean one of the top teams in the conference (2nd/3rd best) lost 44-6 to a 0-2 Utah team.

[FGators]

If Miles were to leave for Michigan (which I think will happen) who immediately would be some choices to be the head coach at LSU?

[vulturesrow]

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He has no real basis other than he "felt" LSU was the best team. If you can't say UF was the best team then you can't say LSU was the best team either.

LSU could choke again this year vs UF & UF still may not be the best team.

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No real basis????????

are you for realz???????
I don't say anything without a real basis

last year:
LSU avg 33.7 ppg, 6.63ypp, 21.8 first downs per game, 4.8ypc (35 carries for 166), 252 ypg passing (19 of 28), and allowed 1.5 sacks per game while allowing their opponents 12.6 ppg, 4.13 ypp, 13.8 fdpg, 3.2ypc (31 carries for 97 yards), 146 ypg passing (13 of 28), and sacking them 3.0 times per game.

Let's looks at Florida
29.7 ppg, 6.34ypp, 20.4 fdpg, 4.7 ypc (24 carries for 160), 236 ypg passing (18 of 29), and allowed 1.6 sacks per game
they held their opponents to 13.5 ppg, 4.31 ypp, 15.4 fdpg, 2.7ypc (26 carries for 73), 183 ypg passing (17 of 33), and got 2.4 sacks per game.

From those numbers, LSU has the edge.

I know you probably don't construct models to project outcomes and test those over past data to see what is most relevant. Fortunately, I do. The best method is to look at ypp for v ypp against and add in a turnover correction. As a matter of fact, once ypp is accounted for, all other numbers lose their statistical relevance. YPP explains an uber large percentage of past scores.

However, there is also a schedule weighting.

LSU schedule v Florida schedule
sagarin had it #20 V #8
LSU played 4 top 10 teams on the road!!!!!!!!!
so, stats show an edge to LSU

My model deflates LSU's edge to about 2.4 points.

A correction for turnovers increase LSU's edge slightly as they force opponents into more 3rd and long situations and get more tackles for loss (the 2 statistically valid precursors of causing turnovers).

So, I have LSU -2.5

Then, there is the special teams. LSU was a very mediocre #80 in PhilSteele's ratings last year. Florida was #52. That is about a .5 point difference.

Down to LSU -2


Then, look at the individual matchup.
sure, Florida won the game, but a closer look is in order.
LSU was in control until Russell had a fluke fumble on a snap near the Florida goalline in a very unlikely situation for a turnover. LSU then made a few more turnovers late in the game as they were forced to try and make a comeback.
In the game, Florida had 14 first downs, 3ypc (32 for 97), 191 yards passing on 19 of 28, and gave up 1 sack for 4.8ypp.
LSU had 22 first downs, 3.6ypc (25 for 90), 228 yards passing on 21 of 41, and gave up 1 sack for 4.818181818 ypp.

So, even on the road, LSU put up a performance slightly better than Florida, but had a fluke turnover and the desperation late picks make for a result that obfuscates the underlying fundamentals.

This backs up the LSU -2 rating from the model.

LSU was a better TEAM


stop thinking that I personally am attacking 'your' team. All I do is call them as I see them, and I have a basis for everything.






oh yeah...on another point...my USA over USSR analogy was relevant because Florida over LSU wasn't the title game either.

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MT2R,

Nice post, but I think you are engaging in a bit of handwaving in order to explain away the turnovers. Since you seem to know where to go for stats, what was Florida and LSU's respective turnover margins?

Not trying to bust your balls, I thought it was a good post. Just curious about the turnover margins.

[Gregatron]

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The equivalent of College Football in the NFL would be New England, Indy, Chicago and San Diego all being in the same division. I used to be a big 10 homer but I have changed my mind. The SEC is simply head and shoulders above everyone except USC.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree...the Pac10 is pretty damn good

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This is a joke/level, right?

I mean one of the top teams in the conference (2nd/3rd best) lost 44-6 to a 0-2 Utah team.

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I hope you are re-leveling here.

EDIT: rereading your post. It's obvious you are. Sorry.

Regarding your other (serious) post: as an LSU guy (fan/alum), I like Miles, but won't begrudge him for leaving for what has to be his dream job. I also take a very radical position on Miles: I think he is actually a decent, pretty good (not great) coach (*gasp*). That said, I think Steve Sarkisian or Norm Chow would be better, and as mentioned someone earlier (in this thread or another), the LSU job is one of, and maybe THE best job in football (college or pro), so we would likely get our pick of the litter.