Botting the WNBA Season...

[MAC-N-TODD]

geez, anyone know why Bodog is so slow with their WNBA lines?

[New001]

I just picked up NY/Detroit u145, and I think it's excellent. What does the bot say?

[MrBlueNose]

Apologies for the lateness of these posts - had problems with my internet.

Todays picks:

Connecticut -1 (57%)

Chicago/New York - Over 144
Connecticut/Washington - Over 154.5

[MrBlueNose]

Tonight take both overs. Connecticut/Indiana over 143.5 and San Antonio/Sacramento over 139.5.

[ImNew]

How do you work out the covering %?

[MrBlueNose]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you work out the covering %?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to get too into it, but it's mainly about predicting the expected line & the standard deviation. If I remember correctly, you're working on your own bot, aren't you? (If I'm mistaken ignore this aspect of the post [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). How's that going? Anyway I've been tinkering with the totals for awhile trying to get the formula right, generally coming up with a base number based on the two teams stats, then factoring in their stats versus teams with similar stats, and a few other factors contribute to it too.

And todays update:

[ QUOTE ]

We went 2-0 yesterday in the O/U, and current records are 27-21-1 in the spreads, 9-7 in the O/U, and so are 56.3% in both.

No spread picks today, and I don’t think we’ll be seeing any more until the playoffs. Just two totals picks, which are:

Detroit/Minnesota Over 155.5
Washington/New York over 146.5

[/ QUOTE ]

[rjp]

MrBlueNose, have you looked at Oliver's or Hollinger's work?

Not sure what stats you're using to forecast totals, but a key component is possessions. Oliver and a few others published an article in JQAS, although you can get it here.

There is a regression for calculating possessions based on actual stats, although the WNBA weights are slightly different. I can't recall if they touch on this in this article or not (I'm pretty sure Oliver does in BoP though).

[MrBlueNose]

Actually I haven't - I've been meaning to get more educated on this though in time for the NBA seasons. Thanks for that article link - is there any website out there that I am missing out on that will have more articles by them? Or is it a case of just buying their books off Amazon?

[rjp]

I'd suggest getting the books (they're cheap) and taking a look at some old work Oliver did at JoBS: http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/

That should get you started.

[MrBlueNose]

Fantastic. Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]