ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
crockpot,

what do you think of this draft. It is a 5x5 9 team with the standard yahoo position breakdown (C,1B,2B,3B,SS,3xOF,UT,2xSP,2xRP,3xP,5xBN)

[/ QUOTE ]

good value picks in rounds 4-6. i think you reached in rounds 7-12. it's not that these guys are bad players, but you can get others of similar value later on. the picks used for rocco baldelli and joel pineiro could instead be, for example, brad lidge and corey hart. big closer upgrade, relatively miniscule outfield difference.

i do think you did well from round 13 on, especially the valverde pick.

overall: B-

[Matt Williams]

What about my team? Did you take a look at it yet? I posted it last night or the night before.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Yahoo free league, 10 teams max.

Overly complicated categories:

R (1), 1B (1), 2B (2), 3B (3), HR (4), RBI (1), SB (.5), CS (-.5), BB (.5), IBB (.5), HBP (.5), K (-1), GIDP (-2), E (-1)

IP (3), W (4), L (-4), CG (2), SHO (2), SV (2), H (-.5), ER (-1), HR (-.5), BB (-.5), IBB (-.5), HBP (-.5), K (1), SB (-.5), GIDP (1)

[/ QUOTE ]

ugh, headache.

here's a simple way to diagnose the adjustments in points leagues, at least for hitters. a very crude formula for ranking hitters in a 5x5 is:

BA*1000 + R + HR*3 + RBI + SB*3

obviously these numbers are very inexact, but the idea is that if you increase any of the coefficients, the value of that stat goes up in your league, relative to the baseline. (this includes stats like BB and HBP which currently have a coefficient of zero.) if you subtract from the coefficient (SB, K, GIDP), that stat is less desirable.

specific adjustments in your league:

batters: avoid steals guys like the plague, as the combination of reduced points for steals, negatives for CS, and increased values for doubles and home runs absolutely kill their value. it's worth avoiding strikeout guys, although the bonus for power hitters means you will have to tolerate some. the rare power hitter who doesn't strike out a ton, like aramis ramirez, will have plenty of value despite all the errors he'll rack up.

pitchers: wins lose a lot of value. i wouldn't pay much attention to the W-L column, instead focusing even more on the pitcher's base skills like strikeout and walk rates. it is also important that you fill up all your innings, because the league is structured so even jason marquis is going to get positive points per inning.

good luck. even if you're not a huge baseball fan, this game can be very addicting if you like to play with numbers.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
i joined baseball prospectus, wow i better start paying attention in statistics class

[/ QUOTE ]

not really relevant, but it doesn't take a stats degree to understand what they're doing. they do discuss randomness, but they usually explain everything in layman's terms. if you're familiar with the terms standard deviation, variance, and 68-95-99.7, you have all you need to read BP. (except maybe dan fox's column)

there's nothing wrong with taking starting pitching when the value is right. i don't like taking starting pitching either, but look at the middle rounds of the draft i posted. i probably would have passed over one or two of those guys (cain especially) had i been clairvoyant about how the draft was going to pan out.

if you can get a real five star outfielder who isn't too reliant on steals for his value, go for it.

overall, a good draft. i definitely enjoyed the inge pick; in a league where you want guys who rack up PA and get hits, someone takes a .240 hitter who bats ninth. classic stuff.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an 18 player league. How does my team look?


[/ QUOTE ]

sorry about the delay, i'm working in reverse order.

are hits a category? surely H/AB are not because that's the same as average. i believe yahoo and ESPN both put H/AB on your team page even if hits is not a category.

i think you have a pretty good team for an 18 team league. if there are some guys who stick out in terms of trading away, i would first nominate wagner, who is worth much less in this setup than a 5x5 because saves are less important. also you should trade lo duca to some catcherless team for an upgrade to your ugly RF/util situation.

i'd drop minky and izturis for pitchers who have a reasonable shot at having decent value this year. homer bailey and tim lincecum probably aren't available, but maybe you can look at some middle relievers with good peripherals (mike wuertz?) or a reach-for-the-stars pick like hong-chih kuo.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Where should I set up my league, ESPN or Yahoo or other?

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yahoo is pretty user-friendly for a free league. that their rankings are weak, but that should just play to your advantage if anything.

if there's one problem, it's that they're inconsistent about what rookies get added to the player pool. for example, homer bailey is in, phil hughes is out. not a huge issue in shallow mixed leagues, though.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]

ok, i've got a couple follow up questions:

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry about the late reply, but maybe you can learn something anyway.

1. really, in terms of teaching a man to fish instead of giving him one, the best way to do this is to find a good set of projections and set up an excel formula for fantasy points based on your system. now sort by position, then projected fantasy points. compare the top guys at each position to the guys ranked 10th-12th (40th-50th for starting pitchers) -- the fringe guys who should be available for free late in the draft or as free agents. how much of a gap is there? naturally, you want the guy who represents the biggest upgrade over the fringe guys. if that's santana, take him. if it's miguel cabrera, then you look at him.

this isn't perfect, because it ignores the strategies of your opponents, the util spot, and all kinds of other stuff. but as a quick and dirty method it is very helpful.

2. that's not bad, assuming they will actually draft these guys. at some point, the cost of drafting ichiro will be so low that you'll take him despite the handicap. though this will rarely happen, it's important enough that you don't want to ignore it. remember that ichiro has more value than a scrub who's projected for the same number of fantasy points, because he has more innate trade value.

3. yes, the middle of the road starters are going to be more valuable than relievers. one extra win is going to be the whole difference in a bunch of your weeks. in a league where racking up wins is so important, you should also strive to have a lot of pitchers available for two-start weeks. sorry i forgot to mention this before, but you can incorporate it into your in-season planning.

[Ken_AA]

Who are 5-10 players you should be looking for in rounds 18 on in 5X5 mixed leagues?

Ken

[4 High]

Is that a serious question?

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Who are 5-10 players you should be looking for in rounds 18 on in 5X5 mixed leagues?

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

how many teams?

in a deep league, the ideal sleepers are young hitters with 20-20 potential or pitchers who have good skills and haven't put together a solid fantasy season.

hitters, i'm talking guys like corey hart, nelson cruz, matt kemp, ryan braun, or felix pie. i wouldn't take any of them but hart in a shallow league, but in a deep league they all have big upside. all of these guys can put up the same numbers delmon young does this year if they get the opportunity, with an upside of something like carlos beltran's 1999 (pro-rated to fewer plate appearances). chris young and alex gordon, if your opponents haven't done their homework, should be taken well above this point but also are good examples of the idea.

pitchers, you have guys like ian snell, daniel cabrera, hong-chih kuo, jonathan broxton, tim lincecum. look at skills and breakout potential, not ERA, wins or saves.