i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol

[ImBen]

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You need to learn the definition of 'arbitrage'.

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You need to learn to stop being a [censored]. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

There are many defintions of arbitrage.

The definition that I'm specifically using:

"To arbitrage is to make a combination of bets such that if one bet loses another wins. There is an implication of having an edge, at no or low risk"

Sorry if you don't like the use of the term. Perhaps hedge is the better term to use here. its all semantics.

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And picking three out of nine possible outcomes fits this definition how?

[llabb]

m bozeman: Congrats on some good picks. I agree with you on next week, although the initial line on Ace is too expensive, so I will wait, as I did on Bucky this week.

Perf and Ben: No, Perf is not creating an arbitrage on elimination bets, but rather a semi-hedged wager. But we know what he means, so can we talk about wagering opportunities and not quibble about the words?

All: Taylor is slowly rising to a more accurate valuation, but Kellie remains drastically undervalued. How long do you think it takes before people realize she is a serious contender and clearly the strongest female left?

[Performify]

missed this week completely.

"season" record: 3-2 on elimination picks. +1.4531 units

[Performify]

Tonight is Rod Stewart, songs from his new "classic standards" CD.

I actually think Ace is going to do better than expected this week with the material, his voice should be better suited to the genre. I think Pickler and Paris are both going to struggle, and as such have placed small preliminary bets on them:


703) Paris Bennett +499
Risking .2 units to win 1 unit

704) Kellie Pickler +1300
Risking .0769 units to Win 1 unit

I expect Ace's odds to take a swing up after the show, and may add him in to this mix as a lower risk hedge post-show.

"season" record: 3-2 on elimination picks. +1.4531 units

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what are everyone else's thoughts?

[m bozeman]

I feel that you are still undervaluing Kellie. She obviously is not the best singer in the competition, but she is likable and seems to have a big fan base. I see almost 0% chance of her leaving this week.

I feel that Ace HAS to go this week. We have gotten to the point in the competition where it is very clear where the competitors stand. Ace will definitely go this week, and then it will get interesting. Paris and Elliot will be battling it out the next few weeks to try and make the top 4.

[Angelus]

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I feel that you are still undervaluing Kellie. She obviously is not the best singer in the competition, but she is likable and seems to have a big fan base. I see almost 0% chance of her leaving this week.

I feel that Ace HAS to go this week. We have gotten to the point in the competition where it is very clear where the competitors stand. Ace will definitely go this week, and then it will get interesting. Paris and Elliot will be battling it out the next few weeks to try and make the top 4.

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I agree that Kellie is being seriously undervalued. Her fan base is huge (god knows why). I think she'll last longer than Katharine.

[Jesse Kidd]

If I were betting the Eliminations this week, I'd jump on Tradesports and get a bunch of Ace around 50 and enough Elliott at 23 to break even if he got booted. I don't really think the Paris bet has much value, and the Kellie bet has none.

Jesse

[Performify]

i think you guys are significantly overvaluing Kellie.

She's cute, but she's fighting strongly with Ace as the worst remaining singer in the contest.

Kellie has fallen on Pinnacle to +919 since I posted her.

Paris has risen a little to +528. I think she does have a good voice to match up with this week's songs, but i think she's got a good chance of being in the bottom three anyways.

[m bozeman]

I don't disagree with you that Paris may be in the bottom 3; there is only 7 left, so almost half will be in the bottom 3.

I forget from earlier seasons; when do they start just calling the bottom 2 instead of the bottom 3? It should be soon.

[Jesse Kidd]

Your argument with Kellie has nothing to do with her being in the bottom 3. I agree she's not the greatest singer in the world, but that doesn't really matter right now.

It'd be very surprised if Paris got voted off this early, but I'd probably take her if she were 7.5 to 1 or higher.

Jesse