i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol - Page 22

Performify · #**211** 04-12-2006, 10:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You need to learn the definition of 'arbitrage'.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to learn to stop being a [censored]. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

There are many defintions of arbitrage.

The definition that I'm specifically using:

"To arbitrage is to make a combination of bets such that if one bet loses another wins. There is an implication of having an edge, at no or low risk"

Sorry if you don't like the use of the term. Perhaps hedge is the better term to use here. its all semantics.

hoff21 · #**212** 04-12-2006, 12:23 PM

How the hell did Hicks become a bigger favorite over Mcphee?

m bozeman · #**213** 04-12-2006, 12:57 PM

My guess is that he is entertaining, and hasn't been in the bottom 3 yet. Katherine has been in the bottom 3.

Angelus · #**214** 04-12-2006, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How the hell did Hicks become a bigger favorite over Mcphee?

[/ QUOTE ]

Katharine's fan base is very low. I doubt she makes the final two.

Jesse Kidd · #**215** 04-12-2006, 01:40 PM

I can't believe it took this long. Katharine is probably only a slight favorite to even make the final 4, and a dog for the final 3.

hoff21 · #**216** 04-12-2006, 02:09 PM

I guess actually "rooting" for someone can kind of cloud my judgement of what's really happening and EV of my bets. It's why betting baseball and being a Cubs fan is so hard.

Performify · #**217** 04-12-2006, 04:40 PM

Officially adding Ace Young at -157 as the pick for elimination this week:

Risking .785 units to Win .5 units
to go along with my preliminary picks.

Preliminary picks were (obviously) wasted this week, I really expected both lines to fall post performance. Paris did better than expected, Kellie slightly so.

"season" record: 3-1 on elimination picks. +2.4381 units

SumZero · #**218** 04-12-2006, 08:13 PM

I agree that Ace was just brutal.

I think Bucky was much better than I thought, as was Pickler.

I'd give a bottom 3 of Ace, Paris, and Elliott. And think one of Ace or Paris should be heading home.

llabb · #**219** 04-12-2006, 08:27 PM

Tonight's elimination is an expected one IMO, with either Bucky or Ace going home. 50/50, so Bucky at +165 currently is +EV. It really could be either one of these two, but for a pure guess, I am going to say that Bucky is the one to leave. I have wagered on both Ace and Bucky, though, and will make money either way.

Kat may round out the bottom 3, finally dropping her price, as she has been drastically overvalued for some time now. If she does not, then Chris may make a super-shocker B3 appearance. Again, it could be either of these; however, my guess is that Kat is B3 once more.

m bozeman · #**220** 04-12-2006, 09:33 PM

Well, I nailed that bottom 3, unfortunately I didn't place any wagers this week. Ace WILL go next week, though, so I will watch the line on him and get in on it.

Elliot should gather some steam from tonight's show, and pick himself up some votes.

After Ace goes next week, it will get very interesting.