LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)

[Nicholasp27]

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Also - whether "fact 5" is correct or not the correct question is not whether it is correct or not but whether I would have realized that it is correct. I believe my posts from yesterday show pretty conclusively that I wouldn't have but feel free to argue that if you want

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your posts show that you want us to believe that you would not have killed aaron as a wolf, as that would make u not a wolf

they don't show what u actually woulda done, just what u say u woulda done

since u are a wolf, ur word isn't very good this game

u argued that it would be ur plan to kill skoob because u knew he was frodo/sam and that is the logical kill to make with that info...i proved it is not the logical kill to make

so now u can argue that u didn't realize the logical kill, but that's only as good as ur word; neither of ours are valued very highly right now since they know one of us is a wolf, that's why i'm dealing in facts

they can then form an opinion


my argument: probability supports me and i've debunked ur argument

ur argument: 'believe me village, i wouldn't have killed aaron if i was a wolf'


in fact, i believe that we are BOTH saying we wouldn't have killed aaron as a wolf...it's obvious that if i'm wolf, we don't kill aaron, as we don't know who aragorn is...but if u are a wolf, then u know who aragorn is, so u kill aaron


all i have done is proven that the rational kill for wolves with herbie is to kill aaron n2

i have also proven that the rational kill for wolves with me is to NOT kill aaron n2


aaron did get killed n2, so rational wolves = u are wolf

now, we all know they aren't always rational, but probability is really not on ur side this game, herbie

[HerbieGRD]

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There is still an outside chance I could have a random role to claim. But we'll see.

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herbie must die, obviously

herbie/mark/chuck (and books, of course) is the winning line...this game is already locked

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I was leaning towards Herbie being the fake before this. Sigh...

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Nah I'm still right about Chuckles

[HerbieGRD]

Ok so I've made up a fact list of my own

Fact 1: Nich is a wolf
Fact 2: Chuckles is a wolf
Fact 3: FMXDA is a wolf
Fact 4: Books is a wolf
Fact 5: There is no way that Nich, Chuckles, FMXDA, and Books are 4 of the next 5 lynches
Fact 6: Village is boned
Fact 7: I'm going out to drink and play poker tonight instead of dealing with this trainwreck anymore
Fact 8: I'll vote for myself before I go unless I can get a wagon on one of the three wolves that can actually be lynched

[HerbieGRD]

Oh and one more

Fact 9: Even after I die and come up Aragorn village will still ignore everything I've said

[Nicholasp27]

we know from nez that mark/chuck are not the witch-king


optimal strategy woulda been to remove herbie from the game yesterday and find out his role

if not witch-king, then vote our next non-mark/non-chuck suspect...only vote mark/chuck once witch-king is found

as long as witch-king is out there, mark/chuck have less prob of being a wolf


that's why we need to settle the herbie/me thing today...shoulda yesterday before mark, but oh well

if we had lynched herbie sauron, then books, then stephen godfather, we woulda have CONFIRMED mark/chuck as villager

thus voting mark yesterday SEVERELY HURT US and we CANNOT vote chuck


we MUST vote herbie/i today as we need to know herbie's role SOONER than later...we get no more lynches by waiting...either way we get 1 more mislynch...let's get MAXIMUM INFO by lynching herbie today

[HerbieGRD]

Notice how Nich basically wants us to lynch everyone except him/FMX/Chuckles and DIDN'T bring this argument up yesterday when Mark was on the block. No yesterday he was too busy loling at me AND YOU ALL BOUGHT IT

[Nicholasp27]

yesterday was SEVERELY SEVERELY -ev play by village

you CANNOT vote off mark/chuck because they CANNOT be witch-king...thus u wait to vote them because they can likely be CONFIRMED in the near future...


if we had lynched herbie and he came up sauron, then books then stephen, who came up godfather...then we'd KNOW only witch-king is left thus mark/chuck woulda been CONFIRMED

so lynching mark was a HUGE WASTE

on to how that matters:


we cannot lynch chuck today due to same reasoning

in fact, we MUST decide between herbie/me TODAY...

waiting gives us no more mislynches (1 either way), but acting now gives us a shot at CLEARING CHUCK!!!

chuck cannot be lynched until witch king is dead...if we get to last remaining evil being witch king, then we know chuck is clear...gives us confirmed villager in must lynch

[Nicholasp27]

lock herbie so we can have 2nd day today

[HerbieGRD]

Just to recap yesterday he was all like "lol WHEN Mark comes up wolf" and was saying he thought Chuckles was a wolf too. Then today he doesn't want to lynch Chuckles using an argument that would have been just as applicable to Mark yesterday. How do you people not see this? He's flipping and flopping to protect all of his wolf buddies and get villagers lynched instead making only the arguments that serve his purpose. He isn't trying to find wolves he's trying to lynch villagers. OMFG

[Nicholasp27]

herbie, yesterday i was busy getting u lynched and responding to ur side-bar which caused me to not focus on the witch-king data...i KNOW u are wolf so i went after u

now the question is to delay or not and if delay, who to vote...

fact 1: i believe chuck is a wolf...i've said this

however, i will NOT vote chuck so long as witch-king is alive because it doesn't make sense to...if we kill sauron/godfather, then chuck will be cleared

i know u don't like us voting u today, just like stephen also wanted us to wait on decision...u guys didn't want mark/chuck cleared...well too late on mark, but not too late for chuck