LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)

[HerbieGRD]

I'm assuming Nich's posts this morning have something to do with why I would have killed Aaron instead of Skoob that night if I was a wolf?

[Nicholasp27]

yes, and u know that because u read them

when u said u recognized skoob yesterday so would have killed him, i took u at ur word at first...intuitively it made sense that u would kill skoob if u knew he was frodo/sam, so i argued that u didn't know skoob since u didn't kill him

upon further reflection, it made ZERO sense for wolves to eat skoob n2, as i outlined in my earlier post today...i have two great posts on this that make it very easy to see that u do NOT eat skoob n2 even tho u knew he was a hobbit

but of course u will pretend not to read them because u already read them and know u can't dispute it

[Nicholasp27]

11 players, 7v4

lynch herbie today:

7v4 today
6v3 tomorrow (lynch herbie/nk me)
5v2 next day (lynch books/nk jack)
3v2 next day (mislynch/nk fcbl)
2v1 next day (lynch wolf/nk fort)

if those 2 lynches were stephen/chuck with 1/1, then that leaves fmx/jeremy/bram final 3 to decide the outcome


do not lynch herbie today:

7v4 today
5v4 tomorrow (mislynch/nk jack)
4v3 next day (lynch wolf/nk fcbl)
3v2 next day (lynch wolf/nk fort)
now it's me/herbie/books/2 villagers...those 2 are cleared so they decide between me/herbie



conclusion: we can make one mistake no matter what...if we hold off on lynching herbie, we get 2 cleared villagers, but we have to lynch 2/3 wolves next 3 days to even get to that point


if we lynch herbie today, we have to lynch 2/3 wolves next 3 days

so no matter which order we do it in, we have to lynch 2/3 wolves and choose herbie over me...so waiting or going now on herbie doesn't help/harm village...those 2 cleared villas are a moot point because they will also be cleared by going herbie/books/wolf/wolf since all wolves will be found

herbie/stephen/chuck with a side of bram

i'm not voting fmx and i don't see jeremy as wolf here; i will reread tho


so we should decide on me/herbie today so that at least wolf def gets a wolf data point before must-lynch to better make a decision

[HerbieGRD]

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but of course u will not read them because nobody is listening to u no matter what u say so reading or responding to them would be a waste of time and effort

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FYP - I will actually probably read them later just out of curiousity because I really don't think killing Aaron would be optimal strategy there. If it is I would really be surprised

[Nicholasp27]

well it really is optimal strategy in the position of wolves knowing aragorn (me) and knowing skoob is frodo/sam

my 2 posts illustrate this

[HerbieGRD]

Does nobody else see how all these arguments that Nich is making are just proving my point or is that asking too much? All he is even trying to do is prove that it is possible that I am the wolf - he isn't actually trying to prove that I am the wolf. This is probably because certain confirmed villagers (FCBL cough cough) came into the game with a stated desire to kill me.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
well it really is optimal strategy in the position of wolves knowing aragorn (me) and knowing skoob is frodo/sam

my 2 posts illustrate this

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Cool

[Nez477]

***Dead***

Sorry village.

[Nicholasp27]

herbie, it is obvious that village must lynch u over me due to gandalf dying n2...u know this, i know this, village knows this

so u made the argument that u knew skoob was frodo/sam and thus u woulda killed frodo/sam so you could not be a wolf

i have now countered that argument


so what is ur next counter to the fact that i am 2x more likely to be aragorn than u? i'm enjoying it, so bring on the next round

[HerbieGRD]

So here's the problem as I see it - I might be wrong about Chuckles being a wolf but if so we then have to somehow decide between Bram, Jeremy, and Stephen who as far as I can tell are essentially the same person (not posting much but sounding like villagers when they do post). FMX is still a wolf though. I know I said I was done but I JUST CAN'T HELP MYSELF!