LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, i'm gonna do out all of the choices for n2 to make it easy for herbie:



scenario hk (herbie wolf, knows skoob is frodo/sam):


choice a: block me/skoob and kill gandalf n2, kill skoob n3

skoob = frodo -> no n2 peek, no n3 peek, have both kill and block to use to stop sam n4+

skoob = sam -> frodo gets n2 peek, block may stop frodo n3, have both kill and block to use to stop frodo n4+


choice b: block gandalf and kill skoob n2, block me/kill gandalf n3

skoob = frodo -> no n2 peek, sam gets peek n3, have both kill and block to use to stop sam n4+

skoob = sam -> frodo gets n2 peek, frodo gets n3 peek, have both kill and block to use to stop frodo n4+


choice c: block gandalf and kill skoob n2, block gandalf and go hobbit hunting n3

skoob = frodo -> no n2 peek, they get 1 shot at sam n3, otherwise he gets peek, they get one shot at him n4+; if roleblocker dies, they can't kill gandalf without 50/50 shot, so they risk gandalf getting peeks

skoob = sam -> frodo gets n2 peek, they get 1 shot at frodo n3, otherwise he gets peek, they get one shot at him n4+; if roleblocker dies, they can't kill gandalf without 50/50 shot, so they risk gandalf getting peeks




conclusion: the best choice for the wolves to make if herbie is a wolf and knows skoob is frodo/sam is choice a, which is what the wolves did!

if roleblocker gets killed, leaving gandalf alive is devastating

if skoob is frodo (which herbie said he thought was more likely than skoob being sam), then killing skoob n2 sucks as it gives sam a n3 peek, so choosing b/c is also pretty harmful to the wolves

if skoob is sam, at least choice a gives them a shot at blocking frodo n3, which choice b doesn't do

and choice c means they lose their ability to have 2 shots each night from then on as they have to waste their block on gandalf...also means no chance at blocking eowyn, who could thus kill witch king



no matter how you look at it, wolves block me and skoob and kill gandalf n3, even when knowing skoob is sam/frodo as herbie CLAIMS HE KNEW

if u wanna dispute this, please respond with holes in this post, herbie...otherwise just vote urself and we can move on

[/ QUOTE ]
I know it makes me a bad villager but after the way yesterday went I'm not even reading this

gl hf everyone

[wdcbooks]

Sure thing. NICH.

[chuckleslovakian]

Herbie, you've probably already answered this. But I don't care to look back.

If you are the real Aragorn, why the [censored] didn't you come out immediately? Your power is nothing if Nich is Sauron and is slowly going to figure out who isn't Frodo.

[HerbieGRD]

Sweet - that's the first person I've gotten to vote with me in two days

[Nicholasp27]

just to make it even simpler, here are the rankings of choices for both the frodo and sam case:



skoob = frodo:

best choice: a -> no gandalf peeks ever, no n2/n3 peeks for hobbits/2 shots a night n4+ to either kill/block sam

middle choice: b -> no gandalf peeks ever, n3 sam gets peek, but 2 shots/night after that and no worries of roleblocker dying keeping gandalf alive

worst choice: c -> sam gets n3 peek unless one kill attempt is successful, 1 shot/night each night; if roleblocker dies, gandalf is only 50/50 killable and sam/gandalf both get peeks until one is dead and then other gets peeks until dies



if u have an objection to the above rankings, please speak up now!




skoob = sam:

best choice: a -> no gandalf peeks ever, frodo gets n2 peek, but block may stop frodo n3 and have 2 shots/night from then on to find frodo

middle choice: b -> no gandalf peeks ever, frodo gets n2/n3 peek, have 2 shots from then on to find frodo (only marginally worse than a, as simply missing block opp on n3 which is 1/x and also vulnerable to roleblocker lynch d3 meaning gandalf stays alive for awhile with peeks)

worst choice: c -> frodo gets n2 peek, they get one shot at him n3+; if roleblocker dies, gandalf is 50/50 rest of game and gandalf/frodo both get peeks until one dies and other continues getting peeks until he dies




if u have objection to the above rankings, please speak up now!

[Nicholasp27]

of course u won't read it, or respond to it...it's correct and it proves that n2 occurs as it did if u are wolf and noticed skoob


i've already said that if i'm wolf, we don't know who aragorn is, thus we go after skoob, not gandalf...


so now i have

a) the 2x more likely chance at being aragorn because gandalf died

b) debunked your 'i knew skoob was frodo/sam so i woulda killed skoob n2 if i was a wolf' defense


what u got up ur sleeve for today?

[chuckleslovakian]

Also Herbie, if you are the real Aragorn, would of it been too much to ask for you to of voted yourself yesterday? You knew the village preferred you over Nich.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
Herbie, you've probably already answered this. But I don't care to look back.

If you are the real Aragorn, why the [censored] didn't you come out immediately? Your power is nothing if Nich is Sauron and is slowly going to figure out who isn't Frodo.

[/ QUOTE ]
No I haven't answered this yet - I didn't come out immediately because I believed there was a tangible benefit to keeping Aragorn alive since after n1 I knew the evils used both a nightkill and a roleblock on him. I probably should have come out day 3 or day 4 after aaron died but I was still hoping I would get a block in - I didn't realize until later that gollum left the game after Sam/Frodo was dead so I thought if I got one more block in it would give us an extra mislynch. I was also really hoping to get nightkilled although I knew how unlikely that was. The night I tried to block DMK I was roleblocked and so I came out after realizing that there was no way the evils actually thought I was Frodo based on the way GT1T was pushing me - I have no idea why I was roleblocked. Maybe I should have come out sooner - I don't know. At the time I thought I had enough pressure on me that staying hidden was smarter because I believed I had a real chance to block another nightkill.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
Also Herbie, if you are the real Aragorn, would of it been too much to ask for you to of voted yourself yesterday? You knew the village preferred you over Nich.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nobody did - I considered it but I usually don't roll that way - if the consensus is that I need to go today I would be more than happy to vote myself today

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so either way, no way skoob wasn't killed if ANY wolf noticed that he was sam/frodo...

thus, wolves did not notice

[/ QUOTE ]
Jack - this is from one of Nich's posts earlier today arguing against the initial argument that I advanced

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BOTTOM LINE: The fact that I assumed that the wolves would have known Skoob was Frodo or Sam and decided to kill Aaron instead (something I would never do) means that I did in fact know that Skoob was Frodo or Sam that night. This actually proves that I cannot be a wolf here because if I was Skoob would have died instead of Aaron.

Whether you guys believe this or not it is 100% true even though it sounds dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]
And this is my summation of how it does in fact prove that Nich is the wolf

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
well u didn't kill skoob n2, so u must not have noticed it...that's all there is to it

[/ QUOTE ]
And finally this is Nich's counterargument to that particular point

[/ QUOTE ]

This was the summation of my points from yesterday afternoon - I see Nich is still hard at work this morning but basically yeah - this tells you guys everything you need to know