Week 3 NCAA Picks - Page 21

iggymcfly · #**201** 09-14-2007, 03:31 PM

Yeah, normally I'd follow your POTW for at least 1 unit if I had no lean, but I'm really high on UCLA this year and I haven't see anything from Utah that's made me think they could keep this close. Dr. Bob being strong on UCLA doesn't encourage me either, even if he moved the line of the 14.

Also, Indiana, if you're mainly doing sports betting for fun, and your sports bankroll's a lot smaller than your poker bankroll, it's only natural that you're going to want to bet big to still feel the action. It's only when you're betting a significant percentage of your combined sports/poker bankroll that you have to worry. Also, when you lose at sports betting, it is about like getting aces cracked....in Omaha.

Alzee · #**202** 09-14-2007, 04:54 PM

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POTW: Utah +14 v UCLA bet 3.85u to win 3.5u

2-0 POTW this year
(G tech +3 @ ND: 33-0 G Tech)
(Bowling Green +18 @ Mich St: 28-17 Mich St)

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I'm curious as to why you're so high on Utah here. I was with you in week 1, as GTech was also my potw, and I rode BG because of you last week (tyvm).

I'll admit that I haven't seen Utah play yet this year, but I've seen their starting qb Grady play at OU, and that dude's got the mobility of KU HC Mangino. I don't see any way they can possibly be running their full offense with him at qb. Also, I think Utah's top interior dlineman is out with an injury.

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I was going to ask MT2R the same question... I went 1u on UCLA before seeing his POTW. After seeing his POTW I did even more research but came away feeling better yet about my 1u. I dunno, who knows anything after that stupid [censored] TCU game last night... sheesh

Alzee · #**203** 09-14-2007, 05:02 PM

Need to gain some ground after last night. Good Luck everyone!

Cincinnati -9 (1u)
Oregon -16.5 (1u)
UCLA -13.5 (1u)
BYU -6.5 (1u)
Washington +4 (1u)
USC -10 (1u)
Purdue -19.5 (1u)
Ohio State/Washington O41 (2u) POTW
LSU -40 (1u)
Oklahoma St./Troy O62 (1u)

If noon games are going well will probably throw another 2u on my POTW

NajdorfDefense · #**204** 09-14-2007, 05:21 PM

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Your AA didn't get cracked, but you didn't hit your flush when getting 2:1 on your money.

In sports betting, just like poker, you worry more about your decisions (and your thought process) and not your outcomes (though they matter).

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You're all crazy. An 8-pt fave, up 14 in the 4th Q, LOST the game.

That's not bad luck. Bad luck is a fumble bounce, a bad penalty by the ref that moves a 55-yd fg try to 45. TCU gave up 17 straight points and didn't score. Give AF some credit for stopping TCU when they had to.
Even if TCU wins in OT, they don't cover.

Bad luck is AzzuSt, up 32 pts in the 4th, on the 9-yd line, going for it on 4th down, and missing, instead of kicking the FG so I miss the Over by 1 point. Why would you go for a TD there???? back on tilt!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Indiana · #**205** 09-14-2007, 05:27 PM

Guys, is sports even beatable? I mean is it better than just going out and playing stocks?

Austiger · #**206** 09-14-2007, 05:32 PM

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Guys, is sports even beatable? I mean is it better than just going out and playing stocks?

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FAQ

sanmarcosrun1 · #**207** 09-14-2007, 06:01 PM

So far picks I have put down are:
Washington +4
Bama -3
West virginia -16 WIN
Michigan -7
AF +8 WIN
GT -6
AF/TCU U41.5 WIN

Added:
Cinci -7
Nebraska +10

all 1unit plays
37-21-1 ytd. +8.202units

MyTurn2Raise · #**208** 09-14-2007, 06:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your AA didn't get cracked, but you didn't hit your flush when getting 2:1 on your money.

In sports betting, just like poker, you worry more about your decisions (and your thought process) and not your outcomes (though they matter).

[/ QUOTE ]

You're all crazy. An 8-pt fave, up 14 in the 4th Q, LOST the game.

That's not bad luck. Bad luck is a fumble bounce, a bad penalty by the ref that moves a 55-yd fg try to 45. TCU gave up 17 straight points and didn't score. Give AF some credit for stopping TCU when they had to.
Even if TCU wins in OT, they don't cover.

Bad luck is AzzuSt, up 32 pts in the 4th, on the 9-yd line, going for it on 4th down, and missing, instead of kicking the FG so I miss the Over by 1 point. Why would you go for a TD there???? back on tilt!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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well, TCU had fumbled inside the Air Force 5 in that second half. The 17 points straight by Air Force happened after TCU decided to go for it on fourth at the Air Force 32 instead of kicking a FG (which was very makeable with the wind that was with the horned frogs and altitude). Add in two terrible throws by the TCU QB (one a pick from inside the Air Force 15 while TCU was building that 17-3 lead and another just before the end of regulation) and a complete outcoaching that allowed a 4th and 1 deep by Air Force to be a 70 yd TD run. TCU pretty much owned the game and found ways to blow it. A couple fluke plays late and its over. Game should've been 27-3 halfway into the fourth. Really a major screw-up.

NajdorfDefense · #**209** 09-14-2007, 06:17 PM

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Guys, is sports even beatable? I mean is it better than just going out and playing stocks?

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FAQ + Wells + Yao + Wong

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NajdorfDefense · #**210** 09-14-2007, 06:25 PM

So, Outcoaching + INT + fumble + bad playcalling + bad execution + allowing 70-yd TD run + bad QB play = all LUCK?

I mean, come on. Am I being leveled?

Just 1 AF TD is a cover. They got 17 pts. So, I'll spot you the 10 pts due to 'luck' and you TCU still doesn't cover.

Let's not start calling all turnovers by our teams, bad luck. Bad coaching is not bad luck. 17 pts <> a couple of fluke plays. The fact that 2 turnovers occured in the 4th Q instead of randomly distributed, or earlier doesn't qualify as bad luck IMHO. They could have happened in 2nd and 3rd Q, esp if QB is that bad, right?

The 5 mins late flag in OT in the Miami-OSU game was bad luck. A missed 20-yd FG is bad luck. Your starting QB breaking his leg on the first play is bad luck. Blowing a 17 pts in the 4th to an inferior team on the road has many other culprits [as you noted.]

A 49-yd FG is never very makeable in college, wind or no. JMHO, but I'm pretty certain if you check the stats. Even if he gets it, they win 20-17 and don't cover. Or if AF scores to make it 17-10 and TCU runs out the clock, right?

Anyway, let's go Troy!