Week 1 NCAA plays and leans

[NajdorfDefense]

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a couple of these from days/weeks earlier:
Miami -18.5 [would pass now with Wright/Shields out]
Troy +24
BYU -4
Memphis +3
Cal o54
GT +3.5, [can you believe opened at 9-9.5?]
Ariz St o49 all for 1 unit.

2-0, 2u ytd so far.

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winner
winner!
winner
winner!
winner easier
winner easiest
looks like 1-pt loss because ASU only scored once in last 25 minutes and didn't kick a FG on 4th down inside the 10, up 35 pts in the 3rd Q, and went for it instead on 4th and 1.

8-1, up 6.95u YTD.

[NajdorfDefense]

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nice meaningless touchdown except to cover troy

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especially after it was called a final on a couple different box scores at 46-20....I wonder what happened [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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the yahoo play by play gave a description of "player X rushes up the middle for 72 yards"

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My yahoo.com screen had it correct as 2 yards, it was goal to go at the 2 yd line with 2 secs left, after an 8 play 83 yd drive, fyi.

[MyTurn2Raise]

yep...ASU fell short which is turning my night sour quickly

[NajdorfDefense]

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Nobody likes BYU -4 at home v Zona.

Well, no one except me, I guess. With Beck gone, everyone is predicting a loss or tight win for the Cougars. 1u on BYU, still line shopping and hoping it keeps dropping as it's gone from 5 to 4 already.

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Pretty much everyone I have looked at has Arizona in this one. Personally, I can't find much of an edge either way, but I have a feeling that BYU is the right side. GL.

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Like I said, BYU should win this one, and they did with ease. All the squares on Zona 'cos OMG Beck graduated and stuff!11! [MT2R trust your numbers!]
Woulda been a shutout if Zona didn't score in final minute vs the backup Mormons. Nice 288yds and 2 TDs for Max Hall in his first start, they always have a QB ready in Provo.

[MyTurn2Raise]

yeah....as I watched the game, I laughed

it's not like I held back on betting much this weekend....couldn't fathom why that would be the one

I even overruled my numbers with Penn St/FIU (had PSU -52...lol), UTEP/New Mexico (had pk), and Notre Dame/G Tech (had ND -4)..

well....at least the one was a great override


that being said, I'm really only upset about the Auburn/K St under bet and believing in Virginia

[MicroBob]

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yep...ASU fell short which is turning my night sour quickly

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Sounds like a tough day.
Think you didn't bet on enough games.

[MyTurn2Raise]

not a tough day...just not a good one (I'm greedy)

some very promising signs for my big future bets
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Best bet of the entire football season:
Notre Dame under 7.5 wins bet 7.8u to win 6u
I have this priced at nearly -200 for breakeven

Georgia Tech over 7 wins bet 4.4u to win 4u

Syracuse under 4.5 wins bet 3.15u to win 3u

Boise State under 11 wins bet 2.6u to win 2u

LSU over 10 wins bet 2.1u to win 2u

UCLA over 9 wins bet 2u to win 2.2u

Kansas State under 7.5 wins bet 1.4u to win 1u

Alabama over 8 wins bet 1u to win 1.05u

Auburn under 8.5 wins bet 1.15u to win 1u

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also, very promising signs for my player season props
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BEST BET: Andy Brodell (Iowa) over 550 yards receiving -120 bet 1.2u to win 1u

Tim Tebow (Florida) under 600 total rushing yards -120 bet 1.2u to win 1u

Antone Smith (FSU) over 750 total rushing yards -130 bet 1.3u to win 1u

Mario Manningham (Michigan) under 950 total receiving yards -110 bet 1.1u to win 1u

Anthony Morelli (Penn St) over 2150 total passing yards -130 bet 1.3u to win 1u

Matt Ryan (Boston College) over 2500 passing yards -120 bet 1.2u to win 1u

Darren McFadden (Arkansas) under 1750 total rushing yards -125 bet 1.25u to win 1u

Colt Brennan (Hawai'i) over 48 total passing touchdowns -120 bet 1.2u to win 1u

Matt Stafford (Georgia) over 1750 total passing yards -150 bet 0.75u to win 0.5u

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so....about a breakeven week pending FSU/Clemson and sitting up nicely for the future

[MyTurn2Raise]

I think I'm more disappointed that reading through this thread makes everyone but me appear to be a genius

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[bills217]

I went undefeated today - ECU +28.5. 1-0. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Expect to place significantly more wagers for next week.

[bills217]

MT2R,

As you know, I have a tremendous amount of respect for you, and you're definitely this forum's best contributor this time of year 3 years running, but I think you bet too many games, even putting in as much time as you do.

Just look at your total record from last year vs. plays of the week and your other stronger plays. Over the last 2 years for that matter.

I am the last one to say that sports betting or any other market is efficient, but...I have a hard time believing that there are juice-beating edges on that many games, or at least that one human being is capable of finding them all at once.