TomG's Robot Professional MLB Betting

[TomG]

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TomG, love this thread, thanks. Do you ever compare your lines to the lines Murray posts?

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I didn't know Murray was updating his blog regularly. Thanks for letting me know. I will keep an eye on his lines and compare them against the ones I calculate. I don't expect them to be identical (someone here who asked said Murray doesn't even use xERA for his lines), but I would hope they are more similar than different.

[fun160]

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TomG, love this thread, thanks. Do you ever compare your lines to the lines Murray posts?

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I didn't know Murray was updating his blog regularly. Thanks for letting me know.

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He hadn't been for a while because "A nasty virus attack forced a rebuild in a lot of my work; that's the main reason for the lack of updates to this site."

[fun160]

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The only thing that is a little annoying is that as you actually work through the book there are a number of errors in the code - I believe there is an errata page somewhere, though, where most of these have been identified.

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Here are the errata pages. Enjoy.

[TomG]

Updated YTD:
121.39 units wagered
+16.57 units
+13.7% ROI

The Milwaukee pick was "No Action" due to a pitching change. That left only 3 games that we went 1-2 on for a loss of 1 unit.

Thursday MLB... Curiously it's the same picks as Wednesday but only the winning teams...

Milwaukee at Detroit
Milwaukee -105
Risk 1.05 units to win 1 unit

St. Louis at Kansas City
St. Louis -109
Risk 1.09 units to win 1 unit

[newb411breaker19]

TomG, I'm interested in learning how you are betting on interleague. I'm real bad at basic logic but are you assuming that both leagues are of equal strength? and when you multiply lets say the AL teams offensive by the NL teams pitching what "league average" are you dividing by? Are you using the same league average for taking the NL offense multiplied by the AL pitching? Thanks and great work so far.

[fun160]

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I'm real bad at basic logic but are you assuming that both leagues are of equal strength?

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You are correct--you are "real bad" at basic logic. Assuming that the American and National Leagues are of equal strength is -EV.

[newb411breaker19]

i've given the AL a .6 run advantage on the games i've handicapped so far but i was curious what kind of strength advantage tomg was giving the AL over the NL. I don't understand what you do with the league averages, my guess would've been that you take the AL offensive number times the NL pitching number and divide by the NL league average and then do the opposite for the NL offense times the AL pitching? Does this make any sense whatsoever?

[ThaHero]

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You will get crushed.

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QFT

[Homer]

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You will get crushed.

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QFT

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kill yourself

[ThaHero]

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You will get crushed.

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QFT

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kill yourself

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leveled obv