UFC 71

[Utah]

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That’s not to say that this was fight was decided by a “lucky punch” - a “lucky” punch might be one where someone closes their eyes and wings a hook without looking, something which I’ve never seen decide a MMA fight.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with pretty much your entire analysis except for maybe this. I watched the replay in slo-mo many times and it looks like Jackson is looking straight down when he starts to throw the punch. Also, it was a stupid punch to throw by Chuck but he made a nice feign and looked like he connected well.

Finally, I don't think people should read too much into the 2 minute feeling out process and make too many conclusions about how great Jackson was during this time. Nothing much happened at all during that time. The best I think you can say is that they danced a bit and Jackson showed good footwork and he baited Chuck to come in. I don't think someone can dominate anything when no punches at all are being thrown.

[Performify]

Dankhank,

I definitely expected Rampage to come out confident, and to try to cut Liddell off and control the center of the cage. None of those things changed my mind about the start of the fight, they were all expected. In my original writeup, I talked about how Jackson would attempt to stalk Liddell around the cage but would not be able to effectively trap him as he did in their previous encounter in the PRIDE ring, due to the lack of a defined corner to the octagon compared to the PRIDE ring.

However, as soon as Jackson taunted Liddell and Liddell took the first step forward towards him, I'd say the true line dropped in that instant to about -110 on each side. THAT is the moment I went "oh [censored]" from the crowd.

If Chuck was going to chase Jackson and not the other way around, we had at best an even fight on our hands and possibly at worst something like -150 Jackson.

[Performify]

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I agree with pretty much your entire analysis except for maybe this. I watched the replay in slo-mo many times and it looks like Jackson is looking straight down when he starts to throw the punch.

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Rampage is looking down watching Chuck's left hand/arm when he starts to throw, as he should be. The most effective way to counterpunch is exactly that - you don't really need to be looking exactly where you're going to land when you start to throw, instead you know where your opponent is when he starts his punch, you cover up to block, you watch his punch come in and you watch him start to recoil from the blocked punch, you start your counter-punch, and then in motion you uncoil and guide your strike home.

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Also, it was a stupid punch to throw by Chuck but he made a nice feign and looked like he connected well.

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He did have a nice feint to set up the strike, but the problem was that he was hugely exposed after he threw it - he either needed to follow it up immediately with a right hook or even close in and follow with a right knee or attempt a clench. By throwing from outside and staying outside... well you saw for yourself. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It did look like it was open, but Jackson did a great job of blocking it and obviously capitalizing on the opening.

[michw]

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I think there is great value on Chuck at anything under -200.


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I think I agree. I thought Rampage's ability to knee a downed opponent in their first fight was huge for him and helped him keep Chuck down. Can't do that in this fight. Rampage was just madly charging at Chuck in that fight. We've seen lately what Chuck does to people who try that. I don't know, maybe Rampage's chin is just rock.

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Has anyone else saved a bunch of money this year with Pinnacle, Mansion, etc. shutting out American bettors? I've been on the wrong side of nearly every event I would have likely bet big on. I'm such a sportsbetting fish. Since I must have a sportbetting account running during the NFL I guess someone will be getting my money come fall.

[DannyOcean_]

Perform,

When the rampage was at +200 a few days before the fight, i thought he was solid value at +200. Hindsight is 20/20, right?

You have said rampage was a good pick at +240, but not at +160. In hindsight, do you think my play at +200 was a good one?

[Performify]

I wrote in my original picks post that I thought Rampage at +200 or better was the right side in my opinion.

[svj]

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let me ask people who know something about ufc this.... before a single significant punch had been thrown, did the true line of the fight already drop from -180 to, say, -120, by virtue of the fact that rampage controlled the middle of the ring and chuck had already shown he wasn't confident in his ability to flat out control the fight and defeat rampage in a gradual, dominating fashion?

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Not really. Chuck is a counter-puncher. I would have been more worried for Chuck if he was the one pressing the fight forward.

They both came in, played their games, and Rampage won. If they did it again, it might turn out different. When two guys get in the ring to strike in MMA, there is always an element of randomness to the fight. (Who lands the big shot first?)

I personally use the metric that no striker has a better than 3:1 chance of beating any other striker if the fight stays 100% on its feet. Anytime you get better odds than that, back up the truck. (Thank you, Houston Alexander!)

[igetbadbeat]

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I think there is great value on Chuck at anything under -200.


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I think I agree. I thought Rampage's ability to knee a downed opponent in their first fight was huge for him and helped him keep Chuck down. Can't do that in this fight. Rampage was just madly charging at Chuck in that fight. We've seen lately what Chuck does to people who try that. I don't know, maybe Rampage's chin is just rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

Has anyone else saved a bunch of money this year with Pinnacle, Mansion, etc. shutting out American bettors? I've been on the wrong side of nearly every event I would have likely bet big on. I'm such a sportsbetting fish. Since I must have a sportbetting account running during the NFL I guess someone will be getting my money come fall.

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Your post sums up so much for me.