Donkey Test

[Fiepoto]

thanks! I'll do that nxt time.

[mappedout]

just answered all these, i didnt like the last one cause i think folding is just wrong here... but i would also NEVER just go AI with this hand at this point either... so as the question is worded FOLD is the best option of the two obv.

[tlw1230x]

[ QUOTE ]
5/10 NL Cash Game. 9 handed. Everyone has about $1,000.

You raise to $40 UTG with: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

It is folded to the expert player in the SB, who calls. BB folds and you take a flop heads up.

Flop is: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB leads for $80. You raise to $250, and the SB re-raises to $650. Your image is tight aggressive, very tight in early position, and you rarely bluff. What should you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Going back through, I don't recall a this particular point being stressed exactly so I thought I'd throw it out there and see what y'all think.

I picked fold here and I think the flop construction is what's telling. The ten was chosen intentionally because I don't see the SB making a move with a PP lower than ten. If the flop were say 2-2-7, then could the SB make this move with 8s or 9s? Possible.

But with the ten out there the re-raise after you show considerable strength has to mean pocket TT or QQ+. And since SB lead $80 into a $90 pot, I'm thinking exactly QQ. Too much strength if he had TT and the board crippled, ditto for AA and your jacks make him having JJ incredibly unlikely so you're left with QQ or KK.

[Fiepoto]

Here is Question 28.

[Eucrid]

I said call as I thought he probably had AK as well. I ruled out having AA or KK because they said he was TAG and he didn't reraise.

Is it that likely that he has 88?

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
I said call as I thought he probably had AK as well. I ruled out having AA or KK because they said he was TAG and he didn't reraise.

Is it that likely that he has 88?

[/ QUOTE ]

He very well may have AK -- in which case you would split the pot. And that's the key, the best you can hope for here is a split pot:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Board: As Kd 8h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.433% 07.19% 28.25% 498 1957.50 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 64.567% 36.32% 28.25% 2517 1957.50 { 88, AKs, AKo }</pre><hr />

You only have 35% equity in this pot. The pot is now $2630. You have $1385 left. I'll let you guys do the EV calculation here, but it's slightly positive EV to call. But, that's assuming you don't give more weight to 88 over AK. If you did, it would be more like this:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Board: As Kd 8h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.508% 12.58% 11.93% 498 472.50 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 75.492% 63.56% 11.93% 2517 472.50 { 88, AKs }</pre><hr />

Which is a clear fold now.

I think we almost priced ourselves in by the large 3-bet on the flop. If we had made it around $400 or so, then I think we could have gotten the same information, and had an easier decision if he pushed.

[Fiepoto]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we almost priced ourselves in by the large 3-bet on the flop. If we had made it around $400 or so, then I think we could have gotten the same information, and had an easier decision if he pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. The 3-bet on the flop is terrible, but I think that as played, we are priced in.

[ev_slave]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we almost priced ourselves in by the large 3-bet on the flop. If we had made it around $400 or so, then I think we could have gotten the same information, and had an easier decision if he pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. The 3-bet on the flop is terrible, but I think that as played, we are priced in.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't 3-bet flops with Top 2? Or just the sizing is terrible? Either way, this one is tricky tricky since the only possible thing we're beating is if he limped with A8s and thinks we make this play with with AQ or worse.

We only need equity of ~35% to break-even. Even if we're crushed by the 88, we do have a re-draw to 4 outs, giving us something like 15.5% equity there (after avoiding his 1 4-of-a-kind out. We have AT LEAST that much equity no matter his holding (barring AA, KK of course). If we call and split the pot, we risk $1385 to split a $4000 pot, netting us 1.44:1 on the call for equity of 41% on the call. If his range is strictly 88 plus any AK, then there are 4 versions AK and only 3 of 88, so we have our 10% (since we're tied 4/7 of the time with equity of 41%, for total equity of ~12%) to call. If he has only 88, AKs, then he only has one AKs left, and we get 10.25% (=.25*.5 equity from split pot) equity from that. So if his "betting a real hand" range is 88, AKs, we need him to be bluffing ~10% of the time to call. If he's betting 88, AKo, AKs, he needs to be bluffing ~8.5% of the time. In HoH Harrington swears that there's always at least 10% chance of a bluff. If that applies to ring as well as tourney, than we should call.

Overall, it's so marginal I fold.

[TasteThePainbow]

I said call and my analysis supports it. I included TJs as a placeholder for the chance of a bluff. Most of the time he reraises preflop with AA or KK, but I think there's between a 1/6 and a 1/3 chance that he flat calls with AA or KK instead of reraising so I included those. Given how much is already invested in this pot -- this looks like an easy call to me.
---
11,880 games 0.005 secs 2,376,000 games/sec

Board: As Kd 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.169% 31.69% 16.48% 3765 1957.50 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 51.831% 35.35% 16.48% 4200 1957.50 { AdAs, AhAs, KdKs, KhKs, 88, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, JTs, AKo }


---

[Fiepoto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we almost priced ourselves in by the large 3-bet on the flop. If we had made it around $400 or so, then I think we could have gotten the same information, and had an easier decision if he pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. The 3-bet on the flop is terrible, but I think that as played, we are priced in.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't 3-bet flops with Top 2? Or just the sizing is terrible? Either way, this one is tricky tricky since the only possible thing we're beating is if he limped with A8s and thinks we make this play with with AQ or worse.


[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, that was unclear, I meant the size of the 3-bet. I agree with Kip that something like $400 is more appropriate.