Week-long prop bet

[Nate.]

ddrstel--

Thanks, but no congratulations yet. I'm down to $850 and considering stopping and setting my alarm early. 13 hours and I was a little fried to begin with.

--Nate

[snagglepuss]

flop for 150? then martingale if loss?

[Nate.]

Meh, I'm down to $780.

I'm going to finish these last 7 SNGs and then evaluate. I've never played a session like this before and I'm zapped.

But thanks, snagglepuss, for the best month of posting since FoxwoodsFiend's November. You've been on fire.

--Nate

[UpstateMatt]

Nate:

It seems to me that the difficulty of determining the best strategy for the early game (<$10 BR), while daunting, is perhaps dwarfed by figuring out the best strategy for the final hours, especially once the clock gives you less than the length of certain tournaments.

What I'm saying, i guess, is that I have no idea how to approach the endgame given a time remaining T and a bankroll X. Any thoughts you'd like to share about what strategy you would take to maximize your chance of making it given a diminishing T, say the 3 hour mark, and then the 1 hour mark, first assuming you have the ~$800 roll, and then maybe thinking about the hypothetical $400 or $200 roll?

good luck. I think you'll make it.

matt

[2faded]

So do pending trnys entered before the end of the final day still count? Could you enter a trny at the last minute and have it count when finished?

[Nate.]

Matt -

I've been thinking about that general question and don't have a complete answer. Right now I visualize my endgame bankroll as an N-tiered entity, where N is (roughly) the number of sets of tournaments I can play.

A bankroll is within "N-order martingale distance" of 1000 if I can take N HU matches and get to 1000 by winning any one of them. The idea, I think, is to structure my play to maximize EV(max such N), without sacrificing too much $EV en route. Unless, of course, P(1000 by grinding) > (1 - 1/2^n) where n is something like EV(max such N).

All this is very hand-wave-ish, and these sorts of questions are so extensively studied that I should know them better (having been a math major, for those who don't know me), but anyway that's how I'm thinking.

--Nate

[Nate.]

Matt --

A better plan would have been to take fewer bad beats today.

$832.36 right now. I need sleep. 21 hours 38 minutes to go. (And I need to have the $1k by 7 PM, not be en route to having it.)

--Nate

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
Matt -

I've been thinking about that general question and don't have a complete answer. Right now I visualize my endgame bankroll as an N-tiered entity, where N is (roughly) the number of sets of tournaments I can play.

A bankroll is within "N-order martingale distance" of 1000 if I can take N HU matches and get to 1000 by winning any one of them. The idea, I think, is to structure my play to maximize EV(max such N), without sacrificing too much $EV en route. Unless, of course, P(1000 by grinding) > (1 - 1/2^n) where n is something like EV(max such N).

All this is very hand-wave-ish, and these sorts of questions are so extensively studied that I should know them better (having been a math major, for those who don't know me), but anyway that's how I'm thinking.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, I should have just said:

I'm trying to maximize the number of coinflips I'll be able to take at the end so that I only need to win one of them. Obviously it'd be better to be going for 1 of 3 instead of 1 of 2. But if I focus too much on those critical values (530, 800, etc.) then I might lower my chance of hitting 1000 by normal grinding too much. So I have to find a balance. I'm pretty sure it will be correct to begin an N-step martingale with N hours left if my bankroll allows it.

--Nate

EDIT: Going to sleep now. I figure I've got roughly 10 hours of playing left.

[StringerB]

Pardon my ignorance, but what's a martingale?

From the context of the conversation I'm guessing it's playing a bunch of HU matches in a row - escalating the buy-in if you lose.

Anyone?

GL again Nate. I'll be checking in tomorrow from work -- while I should be working, but screw it.

[benza13]

[ QUOTE ]
Pardon my ignorance, but what's a martingale?

From the context of the conversation I'm guessing it's playing a bunch of HU matches in a row - escalating the buy-in if you lose.

Anyone?

GL again Nate. I'll be checking in tomorrow from work -- while I should be working, but screw it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct.

Gogogo Nate, well, get some sleep then gogogo, the finish line is in sight.