Real questions about pro choice

[Sephus]

wow... you're a doctor.

[brashbrother]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Each sexual encounter does not have a 3% chance of pregnancy.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's good of you to say so.

[/ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue">This is unreal. I still have to spell this out for you. IF you take the time of ovulation, the amount of sperm produced, the length of time she lies on her back, etc. into account, then you can say that "each sexual encounter does not have a 3% chance of pregnancy."

However, the websites I referenced simply indicate that holding all other factors equal, each sexual encounter with perfect condom use carries a 3% risk of pregnancy.

Yes, they took the sample over time, but that does not change the predicted outcome. Maybe this will help: Take 100 women who indicate they use ONLY condoms and indicate that they feel they use them correctly. According to those websites, 3 of those women are likely to become pregnant.

This is simple odds. If you have a 3/100 chance of something happening over time, each and every time you face that possibility, you will have that 3/100 chance. Even if in your survey, you come across 3 women in a row who met the criteria that are pregnant, what are your predicted odds that the next woman in line will become pregnant? Not 0/100. It is still 3/100 chance she will also become pregnant.

Say you have 4 boys in a row. Next pregnancy, what are the chances you will have a boy? 50%. Say you flip a coin 10 times, and it comes up heads each time, what are the chances it will be heads on flip 11? 50%

Taken individually and *assuming* all other variables are controlled, each encounter carries the same risk. If a survey was done that indicated that 3% of women who said they used a condom correctly still got pregnant, it could be reasonable to use this data to predict outcomes. So take a future group of women who claim that they will use the condoms correctly, and you can make some predictions. If no other factors are *known* with each sexual encounter, then each sexual encounter carries the same predicted risk.</font>

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
Simple math.

[/ QUOTE ]
I found it so. I do not think you did.

[ QUOTE ]
I assumed someone on a poker website might understand this...or are you one of those guys who bets his 3 6 offsuit since "3s are running tonight?"

[/ QUOTE ]
For you to condescend to me after posting the mathematical and factual errors and omissions that you have in this thread is just silly.

Before you recognized that your 3% figure is essentially a guesstimate of the probability of becoming pregnant after an unknown but large number of sexual encounters,

[/ QUOTE ] <font color="blue">I give up. I truly cannot understand why you keep saying that these are my estimates. I gave you my references, I pointed the ease with which I found these numbers on the web, and yet you still claim these are my "guesstimates." I have spent several posts trying to repeat this info, and yet, here it is again. In case you missed it, just Google "condom + pregnancy+ risk" and you can see them all again.</font>

[Lestat]

I hate to hijack this thread, but of course I'd like to ask you to elaborate. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Seriously, I'm genuinely curious... I know some say Nostradamus predicted the rise of "The great eagle" (or something like that), and the assumpion is that he was talking about America. But I'm not aware which, if any, prophecies the bible has to say about the US. I'm especially curious, since they didn't even know this half of the world existed back then.

This is getting off topic, but I also find it curious why the bible wasn't so much more specific in its prophecies. I mean if they came from an all-knowing God, then shouldn't we expect much more detail? It could've specifically mentioned 9/11 that would cause the 43rd president of the "western" world to invade an Arab nation and so starts Armageddon.

You'd expect Nostradamus' prophecies to be vague, but why a book that is the divine word of God? I'm serious that I find this stuff interesting. I look forward to your reply.

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
It could've specifically mentioned 9/11 that would cause the 43rd president of the "western" world to invade an Arab nation and so starts Armageddon.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe you can know beforehand that 9/11 will happen but if you tell everyone about it, it won't.

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]

However, the websites I referenced simply indicate that holding all other factors equal, each sexual encounter with perfect condom use carries a 3% risk of pregnancy.

Yes, they took the sample over time, but that does not change the predicted outcome. Maybe this will help: Take 100 women who indicate they use ONLY condoms and indicate that they feel they use them correctly. According to those websites, 3 of those women are likely to become pregnant.


[/ QUOTE ]

just so i'm absolutely clear, it SEEMS like you're saying that 3% of the women who use condoms perfectly become pregnant over some time period (i think we found out that it's one year?). and you also say that it's the case that "each sexual encounter with perfect condom use carries a 3% risk of pregnancy."

please clarify, because i keep reading your posts, and i must be confused because you can't be saying that.

[Sephus]

[ QUOTE ]
This is simple odds. If you have a 3/100 chance of something happening over time, each and every time you face that possibility, you will have that 3/100 chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

right, and it's "over a year"? so each and every year, you have that 3/100 chance.

you think jogger doesn't understand that?

[Sephus]

ok, i read the thread more thoroughly, and am now comfortable making the observation that bashbrother appears to be bafflingly stupid. i'm sure he'll be able to comfort me with the knowledge that it is i who is the stupid one, but until then...

if a woman has sex 100 times a year, and each sexual encounter has a 3% chance of resulting in pregnancy, she has a 95% chance of becoming pregnant over a year.

if a woman has sex 100 times a year, and each encounter has a .03% chance of causing pregnancy, THEN she has a 3% chance of becoming pregnant over a year.

we can all agree on this, yes?

[godBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
What seems illogical about it? You're the one demanding that a teenage girl who can't come close to financially supporting a kid (let alone nurture it and give it a good life), keep the child! So if it's really that important to you, why not take the kid yourself?

Of course, when I say "you", I mean everyone who would demand this teenager not abort a week-old fetus, because she couldn't afford the pill, or she was date raped, or the guy had a defective prophylactic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to illustrate why I feel your reasoning is illogical -
I'm sure there are laws that you would want enforced because they ARE in line with your sense of morals.
Take murder =&gt; jail for example - Using the same line of reasoning that you have, people who want this law enforced should have some duty to serve at the jail?

What seems illogical about it? Your the one demanding that a person who has committed murder is put in jail. If it's that important to you then why not watch the prisoner yourself?

[txag007]

[ QUOTE ]
But I'm not aware which, if any, prophecies the bible has to say about the US. I'm especially curious, since they didn't even know this half of the world existed back then.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not a prophecy to which I'm referring. I apologize for not giving you an answer yesterday. I just never got the chance to type it out. I think instead I'll answer over several posts if you'll stick with me.

Did you read Exodus as part of the Bible book club thread? Look at chapter 18. What type of government did God, working through Moses' father-in-law, establish? A republic. Do you agree?

[Lestat]

<font color="blue"> maybe you can know beforehand that 9/11 will happen but if you tell everyone about it, it won't.
</font>

How could it not? Jesus told (I think it was Peter), that he would deny knowing Him 3 times before the rooster crows (or something like that). Despite his genuine attempts not to, he did. Remember, we're talking about an all-powerful, all-knowing God here. You could also make the case that believers would be MORE inclined to see to it that biblical prophecies are fulfilled.

At the very least, you'd think there would be some mention of airplanes, landing on the moon, the internet, global warming, etc.