i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree on Mandisa, and was fortunate enough to have a tiny amount of money on her pre-show at +2500! I've added to that position, and have money on the longshots, so will win money if Mandisa, Paris, or Elliot go home.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nice call, llabb [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[llabb]

Booyah. Nice job Perf, you and me both. Hope others also did well.

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]

Nice call, llabb [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, llabb, i will second that... very nice calls by you.... let's keep them coming.....

does bucky finally go next week? very nice guy but i can't believe he's still there... and i'm no music expert, but i always think after 5 seconds of elliott, this guy is really good.

[llabb]

No way to tell exactly who will go before the performances, but the trick is in finding value in the pre-performance show lines IMO. This week, Mandisa pre-show was available up to +2500, and post-show only +300 to +400. Still a good wager, but obviously a big difference.

The bottom 3 has constantly been changing this year (with the exception of Lisa, who really had no fanbase apparently), which shows that anyone can be in there, unless you're one of the very top few. This week just confirms that most contestants are subject to being in the bottom 3 at any time, and any of them really could get sent home.

So the trick is looking for value pre-show, and then hedging or adjusting your position post-show depending on the performances and indicators. I took some Bucky when it opened at +180, but it has dropped all the way down to +120, where I'm rather "meh" on it. Looking for better deals now, as many of the others have rather long odds, especially for just being in the bottom 3 this week or last.

So what do you guys think, which contestants this week have long odds with value?

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
So what do you guys think, which contestants this week have long odds with value?

[/ QUOTE ]

i am thinking ace will probably get totally into the queen stuff, and chris will be great (although he's never in any danger). i think elliot can do queen too. and catherine has a good voice.

so that leaves me in a quandry.... i think taylor or paris could be good value, except they have good fan followings (maybe paris especially after mandisa's exit).

will bucky be at the top again even though he wasn't even in final 3 tonight??? maybe back on bucky but probably not enough value.

so i don't really know..... everyone but chris (and llabb, you've correctly thought kellie so far) is in some danger.

but you are right about the value. those odds you were getting on mandisa are amazing... basically everyone always thinks bucky is going (and i can't even remember if he was bottom 3 last week - didn't see the show).

[Angelus]

Damn. I decided against taking a stab at Mandisa +400. I'm kicking myself for that one. I need to start trusting my instincts more. At least I won my "Taylor lasts longer" and "Mandisa NOT in final four" bets.

I'm not sure there'll be much value in anyone this week. I think the fact that Paris was in the bottom three tonight, means she won't be next week. I think Ace will find something good to do (it is Queen after all). Bucky is almost guaranteed to go home. There might be some value in Elliot (+666). I think I'll make a small play on Katharine +2500. The idea here is that her fan following won't be as motivated to vote for her next week after her not being in the bottom three this week, PLUS I'm not sure how well she'll do with Queen. Something to think about.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]

As far as your elimination picks go, is it "fair" that you are picking 3 out of 9 contestanst to go, and saying that is a "win". I understand you won by hedging, as did I. It just seems that if you are going to pick 3 each week you should never lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a fair question.

This week, i specifically called out mandisa so either way I think its a clear win.

In my opinion if I post a three-pick arbitrage that should count as one pick - that's what I recommended playing, and would take the ~1 unit win or ~2.5 unit loss to my "record" depending on the outcome - that's the disclaimer I posted in the pick post anyways.

Happy to take feedback and track the record either way.

I don't expect three person arbitrages every week - the farther we go the clearer cut its going to become (and the less favorable the lines, I don't expect a +1 unit arbitrage on the expected bottom three every week)

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
So what do you guys think, which contestants this week have long odds with value?

[/ QUOTE ]

Paris at +500, and Pickler at +1000. These two will both struggle with the subject matter. Pickler especially. Ace will cling on another week and I look for Elliot to retake some serious ground in the race.

Taylor will probably struggle mightily, but he's got the fanbase to pull him thru to the top six-ish without much sweat.

Bucky will probably be my pick to go, though. My preliminary bottom three are Bucky, Paris and Kellie with Bucky getting bounced.

[SumZero]

I think it is pretty clear that it is Bucky most likely to go given who is left and Queen music. I think Paris is next most likely. I'd probably go from most likely to least:

Bucky
<gap>
Paris
<large gap>
Kellie
Elliott
Katharine
Ace
Taylor
<gap>
Chris

My guess is there will not be much value in those lines as it seems so clear (preshow) that Bucky will leave, and if not him Paris.

[Performify]

I am formally recommending a preliminary bet on Paris at +1100 (or anything higher) prior to the show next week.

I have placed .1 units to win 1.1 unit on Paris at +1100. The line peaked at +1500 yesterday and I wish I'd locked there. If the line rises to +1500 or above again, i recommend another tenth of a unit (for .2 units to win 2.6 units, or +1300)

I expect arbitrage opportunity to come from this preliminary pick.

While it's possible that Paris will bump up due to votes swinging from Mandisa, I do not expect that to be the case. I believe she'll struggle with the material this week, and will be at risk of the bottom three thus her line will fall dramatically after the show.

I also believe Pickler will bomb on the show, and the +1800 line to be +EV however it will be very unlikely that she's actually eliminated. however in a trading market, I would take a selling position on Pickler as her value should decline after the show.