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#193
08-14-2007, 01:57 PM
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Re: *** Official May - June - July Chatter Thread ***
[ QUOTE ]
total bases is singles*1+doubles*2+triples*3+homeruns*4 and has nothing to do with total runs you can hit a single and not score [/ QUOTE ] Sounds like it has quite a bit to do with total runs. That's why hr is weighted much heavier than singles. But my point is, why would anyone post a soft prop line on a stat than be readily calculated? You think they're looking to be put out of business? |
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#194
08-14-2007, 02:13 PM
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Re: *** Official May - June - July Chatter Thread ***
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] total bases is singles*1+doubles*2+triples*3+homeruns*4 and has nothing to do with total runs you can hit a single and not score [/ QUOTE ] Sounds like it has quite a bit to do with total runs. That's why hr is weighted much heavier than singles. But my point is, why would anyone post a soft prop line on a stat than be readily calculated? You think they're looking to be put out of business? [/ QUOTE ] They're loosely correlated much like total yards and scores in football. Why are lines soft in that? Why do you think anyone places soft lines for that matter? |
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#195
08-14-2007, 02:44 PM
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Re: *** Official May - June - July Chatter Thread ***
Vegas sucks
you can bet coinflips on preseason NFL games, but cannot find much of anything on NCAAF |
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#196
08-14-2007, 03:37 PM
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Re: *** Official May - June - July Chatter Thread ***
Books have an obvious need to balance their action. If a handicapper is savvy enough to spot a soft line (and this is highly subjective), then it follows that he should understand why that particular line is skewed. A few possible reasons do come to mind, but are the books really losing money here? I doubt it. So how soft can any of these lines really be? How big can the player's advantage be such that some wiseguy syndicate hasn't already jumped all over it?
The books are as capable of using 'sophisticated' computational techniques to post a fair line as any handicapper. As the course of a season wears on, in fact, the lines on average are spot on. Therefore the advantage either way is minimal, if not zero. You could even be on the wrong side of that tiny advantage and have a losing season, despite your sound statistical approach. This probably wasn't as true 30 years ago as it is now. Bottom line (no pun intended) is I think that as long as you and the books are deriving your lines from the same stats, you're dead. One possible exception is early in the season, when a sound qualitative approach can lead to a remarkable advantage on a handful of games before the books adjust their lines. But that's not compelling evidence that'll prompt me to ship my precious funds offshore... |
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#199
08-14-2007, 09:12 PM
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Re: *** Official May - June - July Chatter Thread ***
WaterOlay, based on your past history here, you seem to be a winning handicapper. That's what makes the above post so frustrating. Seriously, dude, get your [censored] together. It's sad to see someone who is actually talented enough to win throw it away due to a lack of self control.
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#200
08-17-2007, 10:45 AM
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Re: *** Official May - June - July Chatter Thread ***
How many cows does that equal WaterOlay?
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