Donkey Test

[kommunizt]

If a guy with 5BB open-shoved, I'd call ATC in BB.

[Davdob]

T3 versus a random hand is 42.6%. That's a bit weak for my tastes here. I would fold even though the action folded to me. I would consider pushing with any Queen or J8+.

[gedanken]

The big blind has to call 800 for a 1200 pot if it folds to him. Say he'll call with 25%: you're 30% against that range. (even if he thinks you're shoving only 10%, a 25% range for him is +EV)

If the other players only call 10%, you're 25% to survive against one of them.

Say there's a button, cutoff, and two blinds left to act. There's a 45% chance that at least one of them will have a hand to call with. (27% someone beside the BB calls, of the other 73%, button calls %25 for 18% of the total hands). Assuming exactly one opponent:

.55 * 1 * + 300 = +165 no callers (55%)
.27 * .1 * +1000 = + 27 one tight caller, we win (3%)
.27 * .9 * -1000 = -243 one tight caller, we lose (24%)
.18 * .25 * +1000 = + 45 BB calls, we win (4.5%)
.18 * .75 * -1000 = -135 BB calls, we lose (13.5%)

EV = -141 in a ring game

in tournament terms:
we're eliminated 38%
we pick up the blinds 55% -- our M goes from 3 to 4.
we double 7%


T3o is in the 15th percentile of all-in preflop performers, according to pokerstove's algorithm. Forget position, we're just looking to get all-in with a hand that has half a chance to win a showdown. This really isn't it.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
(Kip, are you going to weigh in on this one?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted "Fold". I agree with gedanken's analysis. Even if I was UTG, I'd rather take my chances with the next hand. If you think you have significant fold equity, however, this could be OK. I don't think you do, though.

[cheburashka]

OK, since it's generally agreed that I had my head up my a** on Q26, let's try Q27.

5/10 NL Cash game, $1,000 stacks. 9 handed. A tight aggressive player limps UTG, and another limps in middle position. Folded to the small blind who completes. You are in the big blind and check. Your image is tight aggressive.

You hold: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]



Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


You lead for $35, the UTG limper folds, and the middle position limper raises to $120. (He's a little too tight and a little bit passive. He doesn't like to get himself into many marginal situations.) Small blind folds.

[gedanken]

wow, the testmakers make this easy with the two choices thing.

we've got bottom two, saw flop for free and villain avoids marginal situations. He's not calling a 3BAI for 4x the pot with a hand we can beat. Our bet would announce 2pair+, but we have exactly the worst hand in that range.

If he calls, we're likely losing our $955. If he folds, we're picking up $195.

Folding is better than that.


and I don't think you have your head up anything (now if you'd said call...). Kip agreeing with me made my day! Seriously, I appreciate anyone willing to play devil's advocate rather than simply nod in consensus.

[cheburashka]

What is a tight-passive player going to limp with pre-flop and then raise post-flop on this board?

To me, the only things that make sense would be a set or an overpair. She would certainly fold two overcards, and there are no obvious draws on the board (and I don't think a tight passive player would raise something like 5h6h). And if our image is tight-aggressive, would a passive player who "doesn't like to get involved in marginal situations" raise a pot-sized bet with an overpair?

So I don't like it, but I fold. (That's on the test; in real life I get stacked!)

[vixticator]

My thoughts on 24 hand: Raise all-in > fold, IMO. I think calling is better than both by ALOT.

We have two pair, he's tight/passive. TT-QQ, 77, less likely 22/44. Maybe 56s but doubtful. Possibly KK, doubtful. It doesn't say really passive, just a little bit. None of those hands are marginal in this spot. No info on his PF style; how can we say he doesn't limp w/ QQ? We have TAG image and saw a free flop, what are we betting out? Any 7, 24, 27, 47, 56, 58, 63, 22, 44, 77, 88, 99, maybe A3, A5 or even 4x, 2x and every now and then with air.

Folding seems terrible, his range has to be wider than a set especially since there aren't many cards that make a set now (ONE hand of 22, ONE hand of 44, 7h7s, 7h7c, 7s7c). We crush his range. Push is better than fold. Assuming he calls AI with TT-QQ, 56. I have no idea, not enough details.

FWIW I scored 108 and am indeed a small stakes winner.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, the testmakers make this easy with the two choices thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. No way a push here is right. $195 in the pot, and we have $955 left. Do we think he's going to fold a set here? Because he sure isn't going to call us with a worse hand unless he is really really bad.

I prefer to make a smallish re-raise here, to see where I'm at -- about $240 here. If he pushes, we fold. We would play it the same way if we hit a set here, so he can't think he has much fold equity by pushing.

[Davdob]

Even a player who was "a little too tight" would probably raise a limper with QQ+. And, a player who is "a little too passive" probably wouldnt make that big of a move at the pot with lower than that (although we are in the big blind and we could literally be playing any random hand).

34% chance to win $195 with the cost of our entire stack?

I say fold is the better choice here, but the actual better choice is how Kip would play it.

The problem here is that both of the choices look dumb to me. If we have the best hand, the all-in is just going to chase away action. If we dont, we just threw away $955.

Even assuming a range of TT+, 77, (and I think he limps 44 also), this is what pokerstove would say --

Board: 2c 4h 7d
Dead:


Hand 0: 65.515% 65.51% 00.00% 22051 1.50 { 4c2h }
Hand 1: 34.485% 34.48% 00.00% 11606 1.50 { TT+, 77, 44 }

35% chanct to win $195 at the cost of $995. Sounds terrible.