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#191
11-22-2006, 12:07 AM
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Re: ~~~Unofficial Baseball Offseason Thread~~~
790am in Houston said that negotiations between Carlos Lee and the Astros heated up today. Figures being discussed are in the 6 years/85 million range.
I think the Astros have really got to get Lee, otherwise this offseason is going to be really disappointing. Pettitte and Clemens have a higher chance of returning if we snag a big bat like his. It would seem kind of weird though if he's getting paid the same or more than Berkman. But the FA market is crazy these days thanks to bad teams overpaying for players and driving up the market price for the rest of the league. 
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#192
11-22-2006, 03:47 AM
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Re: ~~~Unofficial Baseball Offseason Thread~~~
[ QUOTE ]
i have a general query to all the people who are glad their teams aren't overpaying for these players. what are you hoping happens with the money they save? most teams have fixed ticket prices for next year, so it's not going into your pocket. everyone is going to be overpriced this winter, so if the team spends the money elsewhere, they aren't going to get much more out of it. further, there are really no elite players available, so there is little opportunity cost in any signing, unless it blocks an internal player. it's theoretically possible that a team could save its cash and spend it all at once down the road, but it seems pretty unlikely. is it a desire to see the club turn a bigger profit? the cubs have been criticized for that for a long time. i can't really think of any other reasons. [/ QUOTE ] Crockpot, You are making sense. This is actually the reason I don't like the Pierre signing. It's not the money, because I think he will be worth close to that for most of the contract. If it were 3/27, I'd say, no problemo. The issue I have is the length of the contract AND the Dodgers have a young player (Matt Kemp) who is potentially capable of playing CF at a higher level than Pierre. Move Kemp to RF, and you probably reduce his value. I would much rather have seen the Dodgers sign Lofton to a one or two year deal just to keep CF warm for Kemp.
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#193
11-22-2006, 05:38 AM
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Re: ~~~Unofficial Baseball Offseason Thread~~~
[ QUOTE ]
i have a general query to all the people who are glad their teams aren't overpaying for these players. what are you hoping happens with the money they save? most teams have fixed ticket prices for next year, so it's not going into your pocket. everyone is going to be overpriced this winter, so if the team spends the money elsewhere, they aren't going to get much more out of it. further, there are really no elite players available, so there is little opportunity cost in any signing, unless it blocks an internal player. it's theoretically possible that a team could save its cash and spend it all at once down the road, but it seems pretty unlikely. is it a desire to see the club turn a bigger profit? the cubs have been criticized for that for a long time. i can't really think of any other reasons. [/ QUOTE ] I think its a symptom of the fantasy baseball generation. Instead of cheering for a team, we play along with the team, questioning every decision because we're making the same ones, or at least have when we've run our own teams in the past.
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#194
11-22-2006, 06:27 AM
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Re: ~~~Unofficial Baseball Offseason Thread~~~
[ QUOTE ]
Crockpot, You are making sense. This is actually the reason I don't like the Pierre signing. It's not the money, because I think he will be worth close to that for most of the contract. If it were 3/27, I'd say, no problemo. The issue I have is the length of the contract AND the Dodgers have a young player (Matt Kemp) who is potentially capable of playing CF at a higher level than Pierre. Move Kemp to RF, and you probably reduce his value. I would much rather have seen the Dodgers sign Lofton to a one or two year deal just to keep CF warm for Kemp. [/ QUOTE ] Enjoy Juan Pierre. 1. When fly balls are hit to deep CF in L.A. runners will be taking two bases. 2. He has to hit .300 in order to get on base at even a decent clip. His IsoD is terrible. 3. His was caught stealing 24 % of the time, making it mathematically more valuable for him to not run at all. 4. His April and May of this year were possibly the worst two months of hitting I have ever seen, and I've had to endure multiple seasons from Neifi Perez and Jose Macias. I loved Depod's comment about J.P getting on base all the time. "He had 200 hits"! Ha! He is right around league average overall. $9 million per? Insanity.
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#195
11-22-2006, 06:32 AM
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Re: ~~~Unofficial Baseball Offseason Thread~~~
[ QUOTE ]
i have a general query to all the people who are glad their teams aren't overpaying for these players. what are you hoping happens with the money they save? [/ QUOTE ] I am conscious of the company I keep; this extends to teams I follow and enjoy. I like the fact that the Indians and the Athletics are not run by retards.
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#196
11-22-2006, 06:33 AM
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Re: ~~~Unofficial Baseball Offseason Thread~~~
[ QUOTE ]
I loved Depod's comment about J.P getting on base all the time. "He had 200 hits"! Ha! [/ QUOTE ] Depodesta would never say that. Ned Colletti said it.
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#197
11-22-2006, 07:18 AM
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Re: ~~~Unofficial Baseball Offseason Thread~~~
That's what I thought, but I could have sworn it wasn't Coletti....
My bad...it was. Still, what a joke.
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#198
11-22-2006, 07:37 AM
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Re: ~~~Unofficial Baseball Offseason Thread~~~
Some more thoughts/stats on Pierre and Soriano.
Looking at WARP1, "Peak" Pierre, 2001-2006, 4.2/yr Soriano, 2002-2006, 6.58/yr Three year average, 2004-2006; Pierre, 4.23 Soriano, 5.37 Weighted three year average; Pierre, 3.97 Soriano, 6.22 Pierre is 19 months younger. I think everybody wants to forget that 2003 and 2004 ever happened when projecting Pierre, just like everybody wanted to forget about 2002-2003 going into last year for Soriano. The fact of the matter is, both players are still in their peak and should be expected to produce at that level in the near future. If I had to project, I'd forcast Pierre at 4.2 wins and Soriano at 6.5 wins for 2007. I would expect Soriano to start his decline earlier than Pierre.
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#199
11-22-2006, 10:02 AM
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Re: ~~~Unofficial Baseball Offseason Thread~~~
[ QUOTE ]
3. His was caught stealing 24 % of the time, making it mathematically more valuable for him to not run at all. [/ QUOTE ] This is a pretty authoritative comment. It's actually a little more complicated than that. The hurdle rate for SB success depends on the number of outs, whether you're stealing 2B or 3B, etc. I think you have to provide more evidence that his 74% clip hurt his teams. I don't have counter-evidence, and I wouldn't be surprised if he hurt his team with that rate. But you can't just draw a line at, say, 75% and say Over = Good, Under = Bad.
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