context hand, QQ on A high flop 100 6max NL

[pmuir10]

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U figure he can't have checked thrice if he paired his ace; no way he slow plays a set; kk may play this way but doubtful; he is pissed at being raised twice preflop and so pushes with air or a marginal hand

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essentially yes. but with a percentage attached to it, such that this is the case 60% or so of the time and the other 40% of the time he did one of those things you listed and MHING,

which makes the river a call for me.

[pmuir10]

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I really hate the river call because even if he had an underpair to queens, you gave him 5 cards to improve.

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from an odds standpoint though you can almost completely rule out 3 of those cards as hitting his under pair (the A and the two 8s).. so then i gave him 2 cards to hit his underpair, which gives him about a 9% chance i think..

[pmuir10]

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when I hit a straight on the river that paired the board.

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huh?

[BalugaWhale]

whoops, fixed my post. Make sense now?

PS: Nice avatar... you from portland?

[pmuir10]

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whoops, fixed my post. Make sense now?

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nope.. what im saying is that a river card can't pair the board and also give you a straight..

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PS: Nice avatar... you from portland?

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yep..im from portland originally, rough yr for the blazers though.. i have league pass and i still cant bring myself to watch many of their games..

number 1 pick though, here we come..

[BalugaWhale]

k I checked out the hand history and fixed it.

I'm from portland myself... Aces_dad is from Beaverton. We rep the O pretty hard on 2p2 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I don't think you're ahead often enough to make the call reasonable.

[pmuir10]

how often do i have to be ahead?

[morphd]

I like the flop check here and bet the turn for value if he doesn't seem to be a tricky/tilted player. If he is likely to play back at me because I've been leaning on him, I don't mind checking this down since I don't want to be faced with a decision like this.

[fishfather]

i like the other version better [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]