my limp-3bet with 8's - Page 2

MrWookie · #11 04-21-2006, 02:01 AM

And to add, no, it's not a huge mistake. It can't be. Your hand is too good. But it's still something to me looks like the gains in variance are tremendous, and the gains in EV are approximately zero. It might be slightly +EV or slightly -EV depending on the opponents, but I think this hand will play very well postflop if we don't LRR. If we hit a set, we c/r and trap everyone. If we don't, we check, the PFR naturally bets, and then based on the action and the board, we choose what we do.

MrWookie · #12 04-21-2006, 02:03 AM

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But Wookie, an edge is an edge, is it not?

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Yes and no. Like I was saying, if you don't get to see the river, you're forfeiting a portion of your equity, which might just cause your edge to evaporate. Addionally, if you pump your edge in a manner that kills your implied odds (assuming you had one), you opted to take a very slight EV in favor of a much larger EV.

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NL hand - you are heads up versus another player with oh hell, let's say 100 bb stacks. You have 87 of hearts. He has AA. You both limp preflop. The flop comes 9T of hearts and a deuce of spades. You are going to win this hand 54% of the time. He open pushes. Do you fold? I don't.

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100% different situation. I really hope you see why. Hint: are you going to showdown in this hand?

tehmatt · #13 04-21-2006, 02:03 AM

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And to add, no, it's not a huge mistake. It can't be. Your hand is too good. But it's still something to me looks like the gains in variance are tremendous, and the gains in EV are approximately zero. It might be slightly +EV or slightly -EV depending on the opponents, but I think this hand will play very well postflop if we don't LRR. If we hit a set, we c/r and trap everyone. If we don't, we check, the PFR naturally bets, and then based on the action and the board, we choose what we do.

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I agree with everything you just said. I just thought it was a tad touchy to call it mostly stupid. Thank you for proving to me that you aren't closed minded.

Oh, and by the way, the pot is going to be 10 big bets on the flop. We might be killing our implied odds a little bit in that we won't be raising and re-raising later, but hey, look at how much dead money is going in the pot NOW. Oh, and also, hands that are absolutely dead to us when we flop our set will often peel the flop and turn with a draw as weak as overcards due to the fact that the pot is 10 big bets on the flop. I like it when that happens, a lot.

Ampelmann · #14 04-21-2006, 02:06 AM

:grunch:

88 rarely wins UI, esp. against 4 villains. You play it mainly for the implied odds when you hit a set on the flop. So you want to see the flop as cheaply as possible, every additional bet is -EV. Don't do this.

MrWookie · #15 04-21-2006, 02:06 AM

To me, "mostly stupid" means a mistake that there was not much of a good reason to make. It's not necessarily hugely -EV, but you should know better.

tehmatt · #16 04-21-2006, 02:08 AM

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But Wookie, an edge is an edge, is it not?

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Yes and no. Like I was saying, if you don't get to see the river, you're forfeiting a portion of your equity, which might just cause your edge to evaporate. Addionally, if you pump your edge in a manner that kills your implied odds (assuming you had one), you opted to take a very slight EV in favor of a much larger EV.

[ QUOTE ]
NL hand - you are heads up versus another player with oh hell, let's say 100 bb stacks. You have 87 of hearts. He has AA. You both limp preflop. The flop comes 9T of hearts and a deuce of spades. You are going to win this hand 54% of the time. He open pushes. Do you fold? I don't.

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100% different situation. I really hope you see why. Hint: are you going to showdown in this hand?

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Not really, you are basing your decision on your current chance to win the hand. This is just about the same as preflop with 88. If we miss the flop, we are only going to hit a set like 8% on the turn or the river. However, we can also win unimproved with 88. Sure, it's unlikely, but I saw my roomate take down a 40 big bet pot the other day with 88 unimproved in a 7 way pot at the river.

VickreyAuction · #17 04-21-2006, 02:09 AM

Why limp-3bet? I think you're hurting your implied set odds by repping something scary, and people will often call down with TP (so it's unlikely you'll win this UI). Fishes will call down with any pair (which is good for you). But I don't like it. If the board ends up with 3+ overs, you're toast. If it comes with 2 overs and someone bets, you have to lay it down, right?

Having said that, this is a wonderful board for you. Bet the river, fold to a checkraise.

tehmatt · #18 04-21-2006, 02:10 AM

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To me, "mostly stupid" means a mistake that there was not much of a good reason to make. It's not necessarily hugely -EV, but you should know better.

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I do know better than to do this every time, but sometimes when it's not -EV, all you can do is shout "GAMBOOOOOOOL" and cap (especially at 0.5/1) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

tehmatt · #19 04-21-2006, 02:14 AM

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Why limp-3bet? I think you're hurting your implied set odds by repping something scary

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You do have something scary. You likely have the best hand. As far as hurting your implied set odds goes...

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Final pot: 14.25BB

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No bets went in on the river. If OP flopped a set, he surely would have bet, and the other guy would have called. I've seen posters call for "implied odds" in pots where the final result would have been MUCH smaller than 16.25BB.

VickreyAuction · #20 04-21-2006, 02:25 AM

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You do have something scary. You likely have the best hand.

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What?! Wait a minute. We may have the best hand, but we need a perfect flop to play it as such. In a hand with a PFR and 126 limpers, we need to assume that any flopped A, K, Q or J means that we no longer have the best hand. It's wholly possible that no one in the hand has a queen. But when the flop comes Q72 and we get 4 callers (calling correctly with anything; a 2-outer has the odds to call this flop), how do we play? Do we keep hammering away and hope that no one has a Q? Or do we check-call, hoping 88 UI will hold up? Do we check-fold in a million BB pot? There's no good plan available.

88 does not play well 5 way unless it hits a set. Getting the bets in preflop with the hope that you'll hit a set or get a good board is not a good way to play.