Hand.,.

[The Bryce]

Might be my inner ABS guy talking. Does UTG ever fold AQ / AK if we pop the turn? You're checking behind if you pop him and he calls, obviously. If we can knock the OC hands out on the turn then that's where we want to put our 2BB.

[The Funky Llama]

If it is HU on the turn, no. If the other guy is in, there is a strong chance he will at least see the river. The value of him folding a 6 outer isn't even that great because he would have paid off the river with that 6 outer. Yes we'd rather him fold than put a river bet in, but this is a significant offsetting factor.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
I think raising the turn is a lot worse than raising the flop. I dont see why you are worried about the 3rd player at all. If we are ahead, he probably has at most 3 outs and possibly 0. And there is a pretty good chance we are not even ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, 3 outs is 3 outs -- and he could have more than that, and he probably has at least two outs. Plus, if we feel like it we can always check behind on the turn or river and save a bet. Finally, if we get checkraised on the turn I have a hunch we can lay this puppy down.

But I have to think about this a little more, because you might be right . . . I'd just hate, hate to see A-weak win this one on the turn, or some guy with 2 outs spike his set on the turn or river.

Because if he stays in, it isn't like he isn't contributing to the pot . . . hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[The Funky Llama]

its highly unlikely that he has more than 3 outs. He could easily have 67s.

You definitely dont want 55 folding considering they are gonna pay you off 2.5BB if you are ahead and you could easily be behind anyway.

How does he probably have at least 2 outs? I think, on average, he has less than this. REmember, if the main villain has AK/AQ , an A or K isn't really an "out" for him. We don't care at that point. Let him call down the whole way with his A8 drawing dead.

[The Bryce]

[ QUOTE ]
If it is HU on the turn, no. If the other guy is in, there is a strong chance he will at least see the river. The value of him folding a 6 outer isn't even that great because he would have paid off the river with that 6 outer. Yes we'd rather him fold than put a river bet in, but this is a significant offsetting factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn will have 9.25BB in it after UTG leads if the other dude peels. You're right to say that knocking him out yields a small gain, but if he's never "re-bluffing" us then it's a small gain with "no" risk. We either get the same result as calling down or better.

When you consider the button though, then maybe it's best to keep him in. He's often dead and may take himself to value town by popping the field with a mid-pocket pair. If we raised we'd force him to define a T, but that's a pretty small consideration. So I think there's a lot to like about your line.

I think I still raise, though. If button's out I definately raise.

[The Funky Llama]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn will have 9.25BB in it after UTG leads if the other dude peels. You're right to say that knocking him out yields a small gain, but if he's never "re-bluffing" us then it's a small gain with "no" risk. We either get the same result as calling down or better.

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Well there actually is "some" risk in that scenario. When we fold to the 3bet we sacrice a bit of equity with 2BB of implied odds. Plus if he turns a heart draw or something and pulls a crazy turn 3bet with his AK flush draw, that is also a small sacrifice.

[Alobar]

the llama has me convinced, I like the just call down and bet if checked to line if they guys capping range here is legit, but if he will cap OOP with weaker holdings then Im for a flop raise

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
its highly unlikely that he has more than 3 outs. He could easily have 67s.

You definitely dont want 55 folding considering they are gonna pay you off 2.5BB if you are ahead and you could easily be behind anyway.

How does he probably have at least 2 outs? I think, on average, he has less than this. REmember, if the main villain has AK/AQ , an A or K isn't really an "out" for him. We don't care at that point. Let him call down the whole way with his A8 drawing dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

As you might be able to tell from my post I think I'm slowly coming around to your way of thinking. On the other hand, it's possible that UTG-guy has 99 and the button has AQ. Or UTG has AQ and the button has KJ. 6 outs is not impossible, and to say that the average is 2 outs seems overly optimistic.

[The Funky Llama]

oh, if the PFR is capping 88+ it changes the scenario pretty significantly. Now you are ahead more often and button has more outs on average, making protection more important.

However, I think it is rare for a TAG to cap 88 3way.

[The Bryce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The turn will have 9.25BB in it after UTG leads if the other dude peels. You're right to say that knocking him out yields a small gain, but if he's never "re-bluffing" us then it's a small gain with "no" risk. We either get the same result as calling down or better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well there actually is "some" risk in that scenario. When we fold to the 3bet we sacrice a bit of equity with 2BB of implied odds. Plus if he turns a heart draw or something and pulls a crazy turn 3bet with his AK flush draw, that is also a small sacrifice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. When you really get into it there are tons of tiny considerations to make. What's imporant, though, is that we focus on the big stuff.

I think there are two major considerations that dictate what we do here: 1) how likely is UTG to fold a 6 outer if we raise? and 2) how likely is button to chase with what he believes is a 6 outer if we call? If the answers are something like 1) never 2) a lot, then you should definately call down.