When is the pot too big to fold.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

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wait for it, wait for it....

SURPRISE! IT DEPENDS.

having a "magic number" is pointless. i've probably folded a set in a 20 bb pot for "one last bet."

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I did that just this week and felt very dirty.

I felt even dirtier when the other 3 people (besides the bettor) who saw the river all folded.

[Eeegah]

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I believe it was Shilix who said something to the effect of. If you are playing lets say at the Belagio 2/4 and you are heads up in a hand but "know" you are beat. But wait some sweet high roller that you've seen on ESPN walks by and drops a million dollar chip into the pot. Do you call that river bet from your opponent. NO!!!!
To sum up: THERE IS NO MAGIC NUMBER

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Or just to make it more concrete, say you have 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 5 players, board is 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG bets the river, raise raise raise, it's capped to you closing the action with 4 opponents still in the hand.

How much must be in the pot for a call to be +EV?

Edit: Here's a real pisser. Board is 2AAAA. Heads up. Opponent bets.

You have 22.

[antneye]

Then I gues Ed Miller doesn't know what he's talking about when he says (I forget the page) "Call. You are getting "X" odds, no read can ever be that accurate, you have to call"

I paraphrase, but anyone who doubts can look it up. From the section on playing the river with a big pot.

Edit: I looked it up. Read the chapter summary on page 205 of SSH and then tell me why my question makes no sense. Better yet, read the whole section.

[Hielko]

It depends. If you have bottom pair in a 40BB 5-way pot, why would you ever call? (perhaps you have a missed flushdraw that missed or something like that) I think that in SSH there is also something methioned like it is pointless to call if your 99,99% beat.

[nomadtla]

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Then I gues Ed Miller doesn't know what he's talking about when he says (I forget the page) "Call. You are getting "X" odds, no read can ever be that accurate, you have to call"

I paraphrase, but anyone who doubts can look it up. From the section on playing the river with a big pot.

Edit: I looked it up. Read the chapter summary on page 205 of SSH and then tell me why my question makes no sense. Better yet, read the whole section.

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Before you start missrepresenting Miller. Read what he had to say on the issue in a thread where someone has this same question.

Chart - EV of Calling on the River... (is folding as bad as we think)

I sugest reading the whole thread but if you just want his response thats where the link takes you first.

[antneye]

Ok, Fair enough. Thanks for the push back (and the link). Maybe I need to trust my reads more than I have been....but I have had some surprising wins when absolutely sure I was beaten.

[Cosimo]

When you've got trips but there's a possible straight and flush out -- I think the possibility of them bluffing the big hand will be at least 5%. I'd call a 20BB pot, even if I was sure that I was beat, because I see bluffs there more often than that. This is the magic number that the OP was looking for.

But there's more cases than just big-hand-against-possible-monster:

Bottom pair and a busted flush draw when there's been action, or playing the board when anyone with a card higher than 7 would beat you, etc. There's no pot size where it becomes +EV to call. Even the contrived examples aside, there's a lot of cases where the only thing that doesn't beat you is complete and total crap that would never be that far into the hand, much less betting and raising, from a player that doesn't play that junk anyway. And the only reason you were there was cuz you were in the blinds and had odds on a draw that didn't come in etc etc.