Variance

[bestcellar]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, variance varies from person to person. IMO, comparing examples of variance like is completely pointless, unless it's just for fun. I don't have any math to back this up, but the math side of my brain is telling me that this is a completely pointless excersise (no offense).

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Mi_T_Sharp]

Ahhh, like I said, if it's just for fun, then it's fine!

It is only pointless in my mind if you are trying to draw some sort of valuable conclusion from the results this thread might bring.

[bestcellar]

[ QUOTE ]
Ahhh, like I said, if it's just for fun, then it's fine!

It is only pointless in my mind if you are trying to draw some sort of valuable conclusion from the results this thread might bring.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, that's kind of why the disclaimer is there that I don't want to hear about how you can run infinitely good or bad

[C-Dog]

I checked my spreadsheet, and the longest streak I have without an ITM is 32 tourneys at the 10-50 level, and 37 straight Sattelites without an ITM.

My total Sample size is about 1000 total tourneys encompassing all levels.

C-Dog

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
I was probably on life tilt and trying to lose on purpose.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is it as far as I'm concerned. I don't meet any of bestcellar's criteria. I don't keep records, I may not have played a 1000 tournies, I may not play 50 a month. I mean, surely not, I've got a full time job and a family.

But my take on variance is that it is a good phrase to bear in mind when you're on an even keel. It keeps you on an even keel when you've raised UTG with AA, been reraised from MP, pushed, and been called and villain flips AJ and rivers a str8. I mean, what am I telling you I've got and what the fusk are you calling with? Calm down reg. These guys are the ones paying you off the other four out of five times. Pace. Variance.

However, when you're on life tilt that's gonna bother you and you're going to be out soon, and if you're out already, you're going to donk off more than you should in the next tournie and at a higher buy-in than you can comfortably afford. And then your aces get cracked.

When you're on life rush you just plug in, settle down and zone in.

I've been playing poker for 3 years and I've always made money. This year, I'm making much more. I've gone through off periods, and cold decks, and savage beats, as have we all, but whenever it's got tight and my love of the game, in any state of mind at any time, has started to cost rather than pay, I've knuckled down and won money.

When people talk about variance, I get freaked out. I've never had a period when I've felt on top of my game, as if I'm really on the ball and making +EV decisions almost every step of the way, and lost money for a significant period of time.

When I'm on a bad streak in NLHE, I'll switch games. It's like travelling abroad. You have to switch on, be really in the moment again, because you're not sure where you stand in PL stud, or PLO.

As I say, talk of variance bothers me. I mean, obviously it exists. It's a statistical necessity but if your mind's running good, your play will surely follow.

[Exitonly]

heres my monthly breakdown from pokerdb. i played almost entirely on stars until feb. also i took a break halfway through dececmber until jan. 15th ish.

July 05 - 33 played - -$267 - avg buyin 20
Aug 05 - 186 played - +$3,131 - avg buyin 25
Sep 05 - 352 played - +$3,099 - avg buyin 25
Oct 05 - 208 played - +$896 - avg buyin 30
Nov 05 - 159 played - +$1509 - avg buyin 30
Dec 05 - 151 played - -$2750 - avg buyin 26
Jan 06 - 94 played - +$9118 - avg buyin 23
Feb 06 - 116 played - -$3,293 (+few k on party) - avg buyin 47
Mar 06 - 81 played - +$619 (+$4500 in deals +$15/20k on party) - avg buyin 100
Apr 06 - 10 played - +$12,154 - avg buyin 100

[People_Mover]

Played around 300 this year and ran two stretches of 35 with no ITMs, but still + overall after my win on Tuesday. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[LearnedfromTV]

In February, during the beginning of the 180 contest, the month I won. I had a run of 35 OOTM, about 25 of these were 20/180's. $1200 in total buyin. Later in the same month (the following weekend, actually), I went 1-29. Similarly, mostly 20/180's. Then the final day of the contest I went 7-21 with 4 Final Tables.

[runout_mick]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't run bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play in mostly smaller field tourneys (180 man +/-), so the variance I experience is considerably less than most.

That being said, I haven't had a notable dry spell yet. My best single day was 3 wins and 3 other final tables in 10 entries [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Holy jinx myself...