Mayweather/Judah 4-8

[Tuds75]

PBF's power comes from his speed (if that makes any sense). His suprior hands speed, quickness and instincts create his power. PBF knows Zab is not Gatti and will not attack him the same way he did against Gatti. These two will spend a lot of time feeling each other out, but sparks will fly sometime during the fight. I don't see the OVER line moving a whole lot. So there is no real urgency to jump on the line. If it hits a number you like...take it.

Another good OVER bet to get on early is Wlad Klitsko vs. Chris Byrd in 3 weeks. The over right now is in the -170 range and it will not go any lower. If anyone has seen Chris Byrd fight they know that his fly swatting punches do little damage and even though Wlad has a glass jaw, Byrd has no power to test him. Jump on this OVER as well because this bet is one the odds makers are off on. More about that fight in the upcoming weeks.

Tuds

[Indiana]

Hey Tuds,

Do you think that Byrd has any chance at all of beating Wlad? I've not seen a more dispicable heavyweight "champion" in all my days. I think Wlad kicks his ass bad.

Indy

[Tuds75]

WLAD WILL NOT LOSE THIS FIGHT!!

Reasons:
1: Wlad is a patient fighter who likes to cut off the ring for his oppoent while Byrd loves to spin out of corners.

2: The fight is in Germany and German Judges and refs are known as being the most biased to a home fighter. Byrd will have to KO Wlad to get the win and we all know that is not going to happen.

3: I have watched a few televisied fights from Germany and they have the smallest ring I have ever seen. It is like 2 guys fighting in a closet. The ring will be no different in this fight. This favors Wlad greatly since a bigger ring will allow Byrd more room to run, dash, hide, turn, spin, and weave away from Wlad.

Wlad by large UD. More about that fight in the coming weeks.

Tuds

[Performify]

Tuds,

Thanks for the writeup.

I'm strongly on Mayweather here. Judah is flat out a chump in my opinion, one of the most overrated boxers fighting today. Mayweather is going to utterly dominate this fight. I predict Mayweather by TKO (ref stoppage) in the 11th or 12th round. I locked Mayweather when it dropped to -425 and its jumped back up almost immediately.

I understand the fears about the weight jumps eventually catching up to Floyd. But its not going to be this fight. Mayweather comes out slow waiting to feel out Judah's plan for the fight. I would not be surprised to see the first four rounds as even. By the fifth round, Mayweather starts unloading with his speed + power combinations - couldn't agree more on the technique: Judah will attempt to close and lean, Mayweather can sidestep the lean and hit him with quick one-twos with a jab and straight right behind.

I believe this line is +EV inside of -450. I'd love to see -350 but I'm not as optimistic as you on the late line move.

[Tuds75]

I was shocked to see PBF's odds jump to -600. Did Jab lose a hand or did showbody see him clubs instead of the gyms before the fight. Again I don't think Zab will win, but I don't think PBF should a -600 fav against a guy who was tops in his division (and the division of the current fight) 4 months ago. If Judah beats Baldomir PBF is -200 or so. And all the Judah/Baldomir fight proved is that if Jab doesn't take a fighter seriously he doesn't have enought talent to skate by, but then again few do (ask Lennox Lewis about overlooking oppoents).

I think that PBF will be back down to -425 again. Still stay away from PBF at -600 or even -500 not a whole lot of value in that bet.

Tuds

[Indiana]

So you're thinking of taking Jab at +400 aren't you? I took Kevin McBride at +600 not too long ago against Tyson. I don't think Jab has a chance, but you just never know in this sport. I've seen bigger miracles.

Indy

[Tuds75]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're thinking of taking Jab at +400 aren't you? I took Kevin McBride at +600 not too long ago against Tyson. I don't think Jab has a chance, but you just never know in this sport. I've seen bigger miracles.

Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

Not so fast Indy, Read my first post if you are wondering about who I like in the fight. I don't like making losing wagers even if it is +EV. I think that with Mayweather going from -425 to -600 that his value has dropped, but that doesn't nessicarily mean Judah is the bet all of a sudden the best bet. Stick with the OVER and maybe PBF by DEC at 2-1 or better.

Tuds

[ThaHero]

On Pinnacle, Mayweather to win by decision is +243 right now. To win by KO or DQ is -127. I think he is more likely to win a decision than knock him out. I may take that +243.

[Glenn]

On one hand Mayweather by decision looks like a sweet line. My gut, however, tells me to never bet against Judah getting KO'd. I still don't know what I'm betting (well, I know who I'm betting...).

[BK1248]

arb on sportsbook and pinny

+360 on pinny
-325 on sportsbook
arce fight hurry up