$50NL: my first post . . .

[BalugaWhale]

what happens if you take JTs and JT out

and probably QTs and QT

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]
what happens if you take JTs and JT out

and probably QTs and QT

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you add in A9 and A6 for the moron factor.

[BalugaWhale]

fair enough

those numbers change my mind.

[pzhon]

A lot of the advice in this forum seems to be based on whether people deduce that you are probably behind. You can be behind more than 50% of the time, but easily have the odds to call, or even have more than 50% equity against your opponent's range.

Call. Maybe you will suck out on his 2 pair or set. Maybe you aren't behind, but your opponent has a pair+ straight draw. The last time I had AA on a KQJ flop and called a push, my opponent had KT. You don't see these hands if you determine you are probably behind and fold.

<ul type="square">
PokerStove:

Board: Kh Qd Jc

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.4141 % 21.01% 00.40% { AhAs }
Hand 2: 78.5859 % 78.18% 00.40% { KK-JJ }[/list]If you are up against a set, you get back only 21% of the pot instead of the 33% you need; calling costs you about $4. If you are up against two pair, calling gains a dollar. You don't need to be ahead very frequently at all to make up for the very rare sets (or straights).

[mikechops]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised most people are advocating fold. Pair + OESD, two-pair, set and TPTK all might make this play. You have outs against the set and two pair, and you're ahead of the other two.

I'd call expecting to behind 2/3 of the time at worst.

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

463,320 games 0.110 secs 4,212,000 games/sec

Board: Jc Qd Kh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.1307 % 53.15% 00.98% { AA }
Hand 2: 45.8693 % 44.89% 00.98% { KK-JJ, AKs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

I have to admit, I am suprised to see you are right.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Oops not so fast. I swear I entered all the 2-pair hands but pokerstove didn't take them for some reason.

Edit

Or did it? KTs+ is KT-KQ. Yeah I think that must be it.

[jjigglers]

Here's all of the two pair, plus all of the sets, all of the straights, and the possible TT.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

105,930 games 0.310 secs 341,709 games/sec

Board: Ks Qd Jc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.3924 % 44.68% 01.71% { AhAs }
Hand 2: 53.6076 % 51.89% 01.71% { TT+, AKs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AKo, ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }

[BalugaWhale]

we have odds.

[mikechops]

[ QUOTE ]
what happens if you take JTs and JT out

and probably QTs and QT

[/ QUOTE ]

... and add AT. Hmmm doesn't look so good now. Assuming I know what I'm doing with poker stove... A big assumption.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.9172 % 27.04% 01.87% { AA }
Hand 2: 71.0828 % 69.21% 01.87% { KK-JJ, ATs, KTs+, QJs, ATo, QJo }

Still, I think sets are less likely and QT-JT while unlikely are at least possible. A lot closer than I thought.

[vinyard]

If I read the HH correctly you are being asked to call a bet of $11.29 for a pot of $22.79 - basically 2:1 on your money. This is a call unless you put SB on a range that *only* includes the sets, made straights and two pair hands and even then it might still be a call.

OP: I, too used to be an SNG donkey; the learning curve in SSNL is rough but the poker is a lot more interesting.

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A.
4 folds, MP2 raises to $1.00, 1 folds, CO calls $1.00, Hero raises to $6.50 ,

[/ QUOTE ]

now we dont have a tough decision