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#11
03-16-2006, 06:32 PM
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Re: I just know I\'m beat but...
This looks like one of those situations where you might not be a favorite if he calls your bet, but you're less of a favorite if you call his bet.
For example: you bet, he calls - you win 40% of the time that he calls. You check, he bets - you win 25% of the time. Note that you still would need to call because you're getting well better than the requisite pot odds. But this isn't as good a proposition as when you're betting yourself. 
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#13
03-16-2006, 07:19 PM
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Re: I just know I\'m beat but...
[ QUOTE ]
Here's the thing. I just feel like I'm never ahead of him and that he always has me outkicked. [/ QUOTE ] My reads are on way more than they're off and I'm guessing yours are too. So even though this looks like a good spot to bet/fold, based on your read, I see nothing wrong with what Jeff said. Check with intention to call. He may check behind the better hand, which you think he has.
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#14
03-17-2006, 06:23 PM
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Re: I just know I\'m beat but...
[ QUOTE ]
This looks like one of those situations where you might not be a favorite if he calls your bet, but you're less of a favorite if you call his bet. For example: you bet, he calls - you win 40% of the time that he calls. You check, he bets - you win 25% of the time. Note that you still would need to call because you're getting well better than the requisite pot odds. But this isn't as good a proposition as when you're betting yourself. [/ QUOTE ] Is he ever checking behind a better hand (AJ-A9)? What % of the time will he do this and how does it affect your analysis?
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