March Madness - separating yourself from the pack - Page 2

CieloAzor · #11 03-13-2006, 05:46 PM

I thought Washington was a bad pick last year and Memphis is a bad one this year. As you said, the fact that the public doesn't like them does not make them good picks by itself. For them to be good picks, the public has to be wrong. Personally, I'm not convinced.

King Yao · #12 03-13-2006, 06:08 PM

You may be right about Tennessee having value, I can't tell you one way or another. Frankly, I can't name one single player on their team, and I don't even know how they did in the SEC unless I look it up on ESPN.com. The ideas I have written about have no handicapping in them - they are only ideas about using information in the marketplace to help in gain small edges here and there.

If you can handicap teams and games well, or if you have the ability to see which teams are generally over or under valued by bookmakers and the public (keep in mind that in March Madness, there are two different types of publics - those that are betting savvy and those that aren't), then you'll have a greater advantage to your benefit in making picks.

wheatrich · #13 03-13-2006, 06:27 PM

I like memphis this year a lot better than washington last year. I don't like Ten to even get out of round 2.

MCS · #14 03-13-2006, 07:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought Washington was a bad pick last year and Memphis is a bad one this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the computers. They're unbiased and they like Memphis a whole lot. Memphis is almost certainly one of the two best teams in their region (Kansas being the other), and yet I've only heard ONE person pick them to the Final Four (Clark Kellogg).

That said, I am a chump who picked Kansas. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

DougOzzzz · #15 03-13-2006, 09:28 PM

Nice post. It's funny how pretty much all of your recommendations go against my "gut" instinct as a CBB fan (but not a capper).

Phat Mack · #16 03-14-2006, 12:45 AM

OK, I get it now. Thanks.

lastsamurai · #17 03-14-2006, 01:17 AM

I use the point spread system vs the ranking and it works...most of my coworkers think i'm a genius...

I usually get a copy of the goldsheets march madness edition...Good stuff!

smbruin22 · #18 03-14-2006, 11:11 AM

king, this is exactly how i do my pool picks (or 1 of my 2 entries), after selecting a winner (for some reason uconn looks much better than the other 3) and a few value teams... bear in mind, the pool i play in forces you to take teams at each seeding level, so you have to balance out your teams or you won't win enough games.

i was wondering how this did last year. i tend to do quite well each year (top 1/3), and whether i get in the $$$$$ is more a factor of luck.

last year, if memory serves correctly, there were a bunch of games with the worse seed favored... NC State was a 10 seed and a 4 point favorite, and my recollection is that they lost in the opening round.

anyone have any thoughts on the following:

1) trend of the team. i.e. last 10.

2) teams with huge home court advantage (i.e. avoid like plague)

3) teams playing first rounds in their "own backyard" or nearby

4) point spreads for potential second round games.

i realize that 1-3 should be already in the point spreads.

thanks in advance

smbruin22 · #19 03-14-2006, 11:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I usually get a copy of the goldsheets march madness edition...Good stuff!

[/ QUOTE ]

i was going to mention the goldsheets too... and i think they predict every possible game for the first 2 or 3 rounds (probably first two rounds).... another great site is teamrankings.com

smbruin22 · #20 03-14-2006, 11:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
king, this is exactly how i do my pool picks (or 1 of my 2 entries), after selecting a winner (for some reason uconn looks much better than the other 3)

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't realize that connecticut was a strong favorite.. canbet.com has them way ahead of the others whereas willhill.com has CN and Duke fairly close. not sure if there's an arb there. i'll check and create separate post if there is.