Turn Fold with TPGK

[TStoneMBD]

o ok, still 6 handed if you raised UTG i would cap this.

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
o ok, still 6 handed if you raised UTG i would cap this.

[/ QUOTE ]

It might be a cap b/c TAGs are 3betting some absurd holdings lately, but a SB 3bettor over a TAG utg raise and CC should be a very tight range against which AQ doesn't fare very well.

Surf

[Surf]

meh, call down then, i guess, b/c tag nutjobs could have AT+ A9s+ here plus some random c/r'd underpair cheese.

Surf

[mmcd]

If the sb's a smart/decent player, his 3-betting range will be a bit lighter than you guys are giving him credit for since a 74 VPIP retard is in the pot. Also, the smallish gap between his VPIP and PFR likely means he 3 bets a bit liberally out of the blinds. I think with his stats, ATs is possibly in his range here and maybe even ATo or worse suited aces.

There's also the chance that he has a pocket pair or a hand like KJs and he's taking a shot the preflop capper on an A-high board.

I'm definately calling this one down.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
11.5:2 effective odds = 14.8% . My implied odds are pretty solid.

[/ QUOTE ]

lmn55d, shouldn't this be 10.5:2 = 19%?

the pot is 8.5BB's at the start of the turn.

[The Funky Llama]

yea, nice catch

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
yea, nice catch

[/ QUOTE ]

Well according to your pokerstove of a rather tight person we aren't getting effective odds. If he is the type to only raise AJ+ preflop then there are short on our effective odds.


1 combos of AA
3 combos of JJ
For a total of 4 combos we are drawing dead to

We are drawing live against AJ and AK which are 6+8=14 combos. Now hopefully someone can check my math.....

8.69% of the time a Q will fall on the river. Allowing us to raise. Strangly enough an A isn't good enough for raise here. If a queen falls and villian will reraise with trips then we will get reraised 22% of the time. Therefore our raises on the end are worth (-2 * .22 + .77*1 =0.3333) or 0.33BB's.

now 2/10.5+0.33 = 0.18 and your pokerstove has us at 16% which means this is a slight loser given this very tight range. So, I think against a preflop rock we can fold this.

[flawless_victory]

preflop cap is standard/obvious and the turn fold is incredibly horrible unless you know something youre not telling us.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
preflop cap is standard/obvious and the turn fold is incredibly horrible unless you know something youre not telling us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look, against most opponents I agree with you. However, against the handrange that Lmn55d put him on I can't argue that it's not a fold. Check my math. Now, even given my math, would I fold it? no, not unless I had the worlds greatest read on him.

Again, feel free to check my math.