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#11
03-08-2006, 03:26 AM
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Re: Ending a dispute
Make it 55/45 and it becomes more interesting. 60/40 is way too much to pass up in an SNG. A top notch MTT player who has a 100% ROI would likely pass this up on the first hand of the tounrey without thinking too hard though.
rvg 
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#12
03-08-2006, 12:49 PM
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Re: Ending a dispute
I admit I am confused. I would think it would be more likely for a MTT player to take his chance with a 60-40 on the first hand of a tournament, than an SNG. I would appreciate it if you could enlighten me on the reasoning.... thank you.
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#13
03-08-2006, 01:01 PM
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Re: Ending a dispute
[ QUOTE ]
Make it 55/45 and it becomes more interesting. 60/40 is way too much to pass up in an SNG. A top notch MTT player who has a 100% ROI would likely pass this up on the first hand of the tounrey without thinking too hard though. rvg [/ QUOTE ] The only reason a top notch pro should turn down a 60/40 edge in a MTT is if he's at a table full of complete idiots. Having twice the stack of everyone at your table is a huge advantage in MTT's and more than makes up for the times that you will be sent packing.
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#14
03-08-2006, 01:05 PM
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Re: Ending a dispute
Where is my poker god and why hasnt he/she contacted me yet!
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#15
03-08-2006, 01:08 PM
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Re: Ending a dispute
The cost of entering an MTT is higher than entering a SnG.
- You need to register. - You need to wait longer before you fire up the next MTT. At SnGs you just fire up the next one. Costs you 1 minute of your time. This is even way more the case for big B&M MTTs. WSOP Main Event: You took a flight to Vegas. You booked a hotel room. You brought your wife. If you are Greg Raymer you probably wouldn't accept 60:40 in the first hand.
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#16
03-08-2006, 01:09 PM
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Re: Ending a dispute
Take the deal
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#18
03-08-2006, 01:23 PM
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Re: Ending a dispute
Apologies for actually trying to think about this and not just posting the standard "OMGWTF how could you fold a 60-40?!? Your firend is a moron!!!!11", but here's some food for thought:
If you double up on the first hand of a SNG, per ICM, an average player has an equity of 0.1844 of the prize pool. If a player takes a 60/40 gamble on the very first hand, he has an EV of (0.6)(0.1844) = 11.064% of the prize pool. Assuming 10% Rake on a SNG, here is the corrletaion between ROI and expected earn of the prize pool: 0% ROI - 11.0% of prize pool 5% - 11.55% of prize pool 10% - 12.1% of prize pool 15% - 12.65% of prize pool 20% - 13.2% of prize pool 25% - 13.75% of prize pool So I guess the edge comes from the fact that if you double up, your equity is more than 0.1844 of the prize pool because of your skill. Because you do gain something here, since your chips were only worth 0.1000 of the prize pool before this hand. But what is the cutoff (ROI-wise)? It's intuitive that there would be a point that it wouldn't be worth it to risk your tourney life if you have a big enough edge. How good do you have to be before you'd pass up a 60/40 on the first hand? I'm not sure how to solve this - who wants to take a shot?
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#20
03-08-2006, 01:46 PM
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Re: Ending a dispute
[ QUOTE ]
The cost of entering an MTT is higher than entering a SnG. - You need to register. - You need to wait longer before you fire up the next MTT. At SnGs you just fire up the next one. Costs you 1 minute of your time. This is even way more the case for big B&M MTTs. WSOP Main Event: You took a flight to Vegas. You booked a hotel room. You brought your wife. If you are Greg Raymer you probably wouldn't accept 60:40 in the first hand. [/ QUOTE ] Not taking a 60/40 edge early in a MTT is a HUGE leak. I would wager a large sum of my money that Raymer would take 60/40 all day and everyday in a MTT.
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