Heis donks the river

[Heisenb3rg]

umm rzk I dont like that proof at all.
an optimal opponent wouldnt play their flushes to target their opponents AA. They would play it to maximize his value against his opponents range.

because there are hands that he would not value bet the river with but will call a bet.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
umm rzk I dont like that proof at all.
an optimal opponent wouldnt play their flushes to target their opponents AA. They would play it to maximize his value against his opponents range.

because there are hands that he would not value bet the river with but will call a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't assume they are targeting AA, i assumed they are playing against the opponent's whole range. this is not a "proof" in the strict sense of the word, because i haven't shown conclusively that if calling with AA and below is correct, c/r would net more than b/3b.
but i believe it's true, because i think an optimal btn has enough of a hand to b/c this river more than 50% of the time.

EDIT: well, i dunno about 50%. but there are also hands that he folds to a bet but 3rd barell-bluffs.

[MacGuyV]

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[ QUOTE ]
You're overthinking this so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not the right way to think about the problem or analyze lines of reasoning, especially when it comes to smart players playing against smart players.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, nice edit of my quote. Second, what would you say if OP replaced "Heis" with "tag with (insert stats)"? How does anyone not call? I alluded to this in another thread - and I respect the guy - but you're acting like he's God and/or has 8 hole cards.

[Oink]

Without being sure I think Heis plays back with a pair on the flop or maybe turn

Dunno what he does with picked up fd's on the turn. But this is not a bad board to just c/c as efficacy will be calling a turn raise with any pair and any broadway hand

I would think heis either has A3, 44, a flush and the occasional cheese like I dunno T9?

I cant fold vs Heis. But raising here is asking to get owned

[TheHip41]

when good players bet here, its because they are bet/folding a weak hand, or bet/3betting a good hand.

raising seems bad vs. a thinking opponent.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're overthinking this so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not the right way to think about the problem or analyze lines of reasoning, especially when it comes to smart players playing against smart players.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, nice edit of my quote. Second, what would you say if OP replaced "Heis" with "tag with (insert stats)"? How does anyone not call? I alluded to this in another thread - and I respect the guy - but you're acting like he's God and/or has 8 hole cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry to leave out the other part. i just took the part i most disagreed with - instead of pointing out the flaw in my argument you just say i'm overthinking. since most people don't raise here i guess they are probably correct, but it would be nice to understand where my argument breaks down.

[sethypooh21]

[ QUOTE ]
when good players bet here, its because they are bet/folding a weak hand, or bet/3betting a good hand.

raising seems bad vs. a thinking opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree with this. There are times when, given table flow, raising vs. heis is closer to correct, but you would probably have indicating that read in the op.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
when good players bet here, its because they are bet/folding a weak hand, or bet/3betting a good hand.

raising seems bad vs. a thinking opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree with this. There are times when, given table flow, raising vs. heis is closer to correct, but you would probably have indicating that read in the op.

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't that superexploitable?

[inferno]

easy meh call, throw up your hand and say I call!

[efficacy]

Heis had Q8o in this hand, so I think I missed a bet *this time*.