$12/180man SNG, PS - Final Table - 77 UTG: Push or Fold?

[ssnyc]

no...been to a lot of these final tables with about 11 wins and you hve to be pushing any solid hand or let the blinds catch you

[J.A.K.]

My gut was saying fold. Isn't this one of those +cEV/-$EV spots with the 3 shorties?


Edit: kaws I keihgnt spel

[omg im l337]

Please push. Blind are about to hit, you already have under 10bb. Every time.

[bruno_pro]

I pushed and nobody called.. I won a nice pot and ended up winning this tourney.. But what made me post was that I really was in doubt about it, thinking it would be a very close decision ($EV wise, not cEV wise)... Can anybody provide a more mathematical analisys? I understand ICM, but I really can't do the calculations with all these variables and people left to act.. don't even know if that's approprate.. is there any mathematical method to get this answer?

[ssnyc]

screw math...this is a push with your stack if yu want to win...experience trumps math here and if you skip spots like these the short stacks will double quicker than you expect and you will be forced to push lighter...my two cents

[bruno_pro]

ok.. i think im a bit too much math oriented.. lets talk about your experience ssnyc.. what is your pushing range here? would u push 66- as well? AJ? KQs? Can u tell me what a good pushing range in that spot would look like?
I'd really appreciate it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[J.A.K.]

I'm not quite ready to "screw math" here with 3 shorties. But I am also not calculating ICM. I'm all for gung ho! Win! But if ICM guarantees us $700 by folding vs. a 30% chance at $2000 or w/e by shoving then...

It's an interesting spot, and I will not have any problems being wrong here.

[OrrLives]

I would push without a second thought in this position. If you had ~60K or the blinds were lower, I might fold or raise depending on the table. There is a good chance I would push 66 also.

You have 37K, there is 3600+2000+4000 = 9600 in the pot already. You can increase your stack by ~25% if you win the hand. Also, if you win the hand you will be chip leader (although just barely) and will put yourself in a much more comfortable position. Perhaps your new chip leader status will make others less likely to steal your blind on the next hand and you'll get a walk. All sorts of good things can happen.

Of the 8 other players, 3 have chips stacks 17K or less. If one of them happens to get a good hand and you lose, you will still have a chance.

You have to be pushing yourself for the top 3 spots... gogogo

[bruno_pro]

I appreciate the answers... thanks everyone..
Just wanna ask one more time if someone can provide it.. what would be an reasonable pushing range in that spot?

After the answers I'd be guessing something like:

66+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+

Does this make sense? Maybe KQs shouldn't be there?

Thoughts?

[ssnyc]

[ QUOTE ]
ok.. i think im a bit too much math oriented.. lets talk about your experience ssnyc.. what is your pushing range here? would u push 66- as well? AJ? KQs? Can u tell me what a good pushing range in that spot would look like?
I'd really appreciate it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry about the tone of the earlier post [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
The final tables of these become mostly a who pulls the trigger first fest and so I like to take the initiative with any playable hand...with under 10 BB this includes any pair, A 10+, KJ+...understand that for the most part I am looking for folds to take the preflop pot...By moving in with these hands you prevent having to push with no choice and a much worse hand later...if you get coolered you get coolered and hop in the next one...as usual there is a huge gap between my pushing and calling requirements...

finally the only time I may slow down is if there is a crazy big stack who is mowing everone down but even then I may take the chance to try and double to chalenge for first