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#11
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How does that math work on the flip side--the person with the decent hand determining the optimal calling percentage? [/ QUOTE ] It works the same way. Take the example from the OP. Let y equal the frequency with which player B calls. Again there will be an indifference threshold. If player B calls less than this player A should bluff everytime; if player B calls more than this player A should never bluff. EV(bluffing) = 3(1-y) + (-1)*y EV(not bluffing) = 0 Set them equal and solve. y = 0.75. If B will call less than 75% of the time A should bluff everytime; if he calls more than 75% of the time A should never bluff; if he calls exactly 75% of the time it doesn't matter if a bluffs or not. This result is consistant with common sense pot odds way of thinking about it, which may make a little more sense. Player A needs to risk 1 bet in order to steal 3 bets. If he can steal the 3 bets 1 of 4 times he'll break even. Player B must catch him 3 out of 4 times (3/4 = 0.75) . [/ QUOTE ] Simple enough, thanks! |
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