Make a Move or Wait???

[jurrasstoil]

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For reference, when I run the "top 16%" of hands through PokerStove and compare with 87s, these are the results. I'm not saying that I thought I was a favorite, just that I thought the fold equity made up for the difference.

[/ QUOTE ] Deuce-Trey offsuit does just 7% worse than 87s... this doesn't mean I shove it here.
Restealing in a 5$ SNG goes horribly wrong like 90% of the time. They either call you with total trash like A3o or J7s or have you crushed with good cards. Especially against an UTG raiser. Against SB or Button this play could be better, but still questionable and highly read-dependent.

Josem is absolutely right. If he opens loose, he will call loose, cause he is a donk. If he is good, he will open tight enough to call your shove happily.

[TheBenfer]

BTW, the end result was that my read was correct in this case - he had A4o - but he called anyway and held up to win the hand and knock me out.

I guess what was bugging me afterward was that the read was correct in that he was raising with a weak hand, but I thought he would have laid down the hand. I understand the comment above, though - if he's a bad enough player to raise with this I shouldn't necessarily count on the "correct" play of folding to the re-raise.

[JDalla]

he's getting what, 1-1 odds? and he's awful anyway so GG you. Oh unless he's good, then extra GG you cause your in even worse shape.

[Josem]

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BTW, the end result was that my read was correct in this case

[/ QUOTE ]
Your read that he "had a weak hand" is actually the sign of very poor thinking.


When someone raises, presumably they are doing it because they think they have a good hand.

Except for some really odd and unusual circumstances, it is normal human behaviour for someone to raise their preferred x% of hands - ie, if someone is going to raise in a particular situation with A4, they're also going to raise with A5, A6, etc.

So, you have no idea what hand your opponent has beyond it is within his range - he has just a good chance of holding AA as A4 - they're both within his range, and you really have no information beyond this*



It is not possible to say that because someone raises in late position, they are raising with a weak hand. It is possible to say that they have a wider range however.

Sometimes, when you're in the big blind, the SB will wake up with a big hand. While, in SNGs, you won't be able to get away from the situation because of shorter stack sizes (and thus, won't be able to do anything anyway) you need to remember that you're playing against a villain's whole range, not just the weakest end of it.


This is the foundation for a whole avenue of poker thinking, and you could expand this stuff into a book.


*except in odd and largely irrelevant situations