Tough decision at the bubble

[eurythmech]

It's likely he's a donk. Our villain distribution is a donk.

[A+A]

After your pre-flop raise, your flop bet on K 7 8 says that you have AK

Your tight opponent is comfortably chip leader faced with a situtaion that might cripple his stack if he gets involved in anything funny. His raise is telling you that your AK is beaten. Believe him.

[eurythmech]

[ QUOTE ]
After your pre-flop raise, your flop bet on K 7 8 says that you have just about anything


[/ QUOTE ]

[babaorumi]

OK When I read you, either I push all in preflop in order to see the five cards either I play the hand like I played. Furthmore, when I shoved all my chips on the flop wasn't a mistake because Villain can have a lot of things I can beat.
But if I push preflop and I m called by any pocket pair, I'm an underdog.
The minimum raise of Villain on the flop was suspicious for me but you don't seem be afraid of that.
Anyway, Thanks and see you soon

[babaorumi]

I agree with AA, I thought like him. But it's true too that a C-Bet doesn't show much strenght and Villain could have me raised for test. But why so few ?

[A+A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After your pre-flop raise, your flop bet on K 7 8 hero is saying that he has AK


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

if villian thinks that hero's bet means that he has just about anything, then hero must have given him good reason to think that, like c-betting at every flop. Otherwise, I repeat, I see no reason why this tight chip leader is taking a risk to cripple his stack.

[babaorumi]

Here is my final thought

That's true that a C-Bet doesn't mean anything. But however from his point of view, it's likely that I have AK. I bet, but he raises, just a very little raise. He wants to be called because I don't believe Villain is thinking at the 2nd degree. Furthemore, even if I fold right now, I have left 4000 chips and my probabilities to be payed are more than 80% (with the calculus in the harrington book V2). If I have a good read of my opponent, he has set in at least 50% of all cases.
I think I have to call, but fold at the turn and wait a better opportunities.