$15 QQ Who made bubble mistake?

[sippin_criss]

[ QUOTE ]
If you estimate the villains range to be (99+,ATs+,AJo+) then you are going to be about a 2:1 favorite to win the hand (and I can fairly say to go on to win the tournament) giving you roughly $44 equity in this pot.

If you fold then I think you still have a decent chance to make it to second where you will be contesting the final $27.50 of the prize pool (on top of the $40 guaranteed), I think it is fair to say that unless you are severely short stacked then your equity is going to be greater than $4 (and greater than $44 overall).

[/ QUOTE ]

man that range is way too tight. a thinking player could make this reshove with atc.

[ADLinden]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you estimate the villains range to be (99+,ATs+,AJo+) then you are going to be about a 2:1 favorite to win the hand (and I can fairly say to go on to win the tournament) giving you roughly $44 equity in this pot.

If you fold then I think you still have a decent chance to make it to second where you will be contesting the final $27.50 of the prize pool (on top of the $40 guaranteed), I think it is fair to say that unless you are severely short stacked then your equity is going to be greater than $4 (and greater than $44 overall).

[/ QUOTE ]

man that range is way too tight. a thinking player could make this reshove with atc.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can only make a play like that with atc if u think he is capable of laying down a hand, right?

[vers]

agreed, hero [censored] up by opening himself up to be stolen by ATC.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding QQ preflop to a reraise with 7.5BB remaining...what crack are you guys smoking?

[/ QUOTE ]


theyre saying it because by folding now you better ensure yourself part of the prize pool. by calling youre playing for stacks when someone about to be all in with 1/2 a big blind. this is why open shoving preflop is far far superior to any other option.

[vers]

I would think that most players would acknowledge the super shorty and play accordingly (folding big hands). I think you could probably get a good chunk of opponents to muck less than QQ or AK. Depends on level obviously and looseness of player.

[JB1795]

Can someone show me the math that justifies his answer? I'm working with http://www.poker-tools-online.com/icm.html

Preflop on this hand
Seat 2: Hero (5755 in chips) $48.91
Seat 4: BU (335 in chips) $6.45
Seat 5: SB (5655 in chips) $48.63
Seat 8: BB (1755 in chips) $31.01

The new stacks after QQ busted the SB
Seat 2: (12110 in chips) $64.67
Seat 4: (285 in chips) $30.36
Seat 8: (1105 in chips) $39.97
This is everything but won. I already mentioned the No. 2 stack here was a fish.

Start of next hand if I had won only the blinds + antes
Seat 2: (5755 in chips) $48.91 +1050 to 6805 $52.35
Seat 4: (335 in chips) $6.45 -50 to 285 $7.21
Seat 5: (5655 in chips) $48.63 -350 to 5305 $48.51
Seat 8: (1755 in chips) $31.01 -650 to 1105 $26.92

So I'm risking (most of) my $48.91, but I'm going to lose this hand a small percent of the time (QQ is 71-29, for example, if the SB pushes the top 30% of his hands, or 76-24 against a 60% range)
Every time I bust the SB I pick up $15.76 in the value of my stack.
Let's say
SB folds 70%
30% he pushes. of those I win 71%.
Is this thinking correct? Won't the value I gain outweigh the small # of times I bubble?

[sean457j]

[/ QUOTE ]
man that range is way too tight. a thinking player could make this reshove with atc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this statement, although it's fair to say you are including the villains estimation of the hero in this (villain would have to assume that the hero is a thinking player and would therefore fold) line of thinking. If you have ATC in the range then the Hero's equity increases to $54. So to get the maximum equity out of this hand you would have to assess whether the villain was a clever player, and then whether he gave you any credit to lay this hand down.

[JB1795]

[ QUOTE ]

I agree with this statement, although it's fair to say you are including the villain's estimation of the hero in this (villain would have to assume that the hero is a thinking player and would therefore fold) line of thinking ... you would have to assess whether the villain was a clever player...

[/ QUOTE ]

He probably thought I was decent. I played a normal and correct end game IMO (shoving often but not calling shoves often and not calling lightly). I had to shown down 54 hearts once when I pushed a shortish stack into AK and won. Earlier I called a shove with 55 (I had 5.5x) and beat an opponent's 92. I don't recall showing down many other hands. Hope this helps.

[sean457j]

I think that after the hands you have shown down it would take a villain with a strong stomach to shove ATC in this spot. Also if the BB wakes up with a hand and ends up tripling up - the villain could end up putting himself in roughly joint 3rd place.

[Kevin8423]

You HAVE to shove pf here, it doesn't matter that the other big stack is slightly bigger because him losing could possibly get him bubbled anyway.

Shove this, and then shove every hand until the short stack is gone or you lose your lead.