33 pretty standard vs unknown?

[elindauer]

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I 3bet preflop because someone posted UTG and I want to get head's up, also have position.

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I think this is the most important decision of the hand. All the rest seem much closer. With the dead money in there, take your coin-flip-plus-position and 3-bet that puppy. Note that you're really better than a coin flip as your opponent will often fold cards that are drawing live out of fear that you hold a bigger hand than you do.

-eric

[sharpie]

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Learn the odds peeps..

Flop set or better from a pocket pair: 11.8% (7.5-1)
On the turn: 4.3% (23-1)

YOU MUST KNOW THE ODDS TO MAKE THE CORRECT +EV DECISION!

[/ QUOTE ]

You're neglecting implied odds and the fact we don't need pot odds if we have the current best hand.

[elindauer]

I think you are underestimated the probability that the hero is currently ahead. With the poster involved, SB's raising range is likely very wide. Q85 flop leaves a lot of room for him to have missed.

Preflop and flop calls are standard, folding would be losing money for a good player.

-eric

[elindauer]

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I think this is fine. This could easily be TT or JJ scared into submission. Betting and checking river is probably close. w/e

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This is random analysis, you need to read HPFAP to understand the odds here. Sklansky splains it well in his book, the odds thing. Do you guys read 2+2 books or just spew advice? UFB

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A smart man once said to me that there is no point in discussing something with a person who has made up their mind. For what it's worth, I think you can play winning poker and fold 33 in these spots, probably as high as maybe 30/60. And by the time you get up there, you'll look back at these posts and laugh. Enjoy the ride.

-eric

[QueBob]

My bad, I didn't see the UTG post dead. Ya, that makes all the difference, get in that pot.

[elindauer]

With such a connected board, I think you are saving a bet from a player who is check-calling more often than you are getting paid off by ace high. I'd guesstimate it at 2:1 against. Check.

Interesting though that a bet might have a little two-way value here... you will sometimes fold a better hand by betting, which complicates the situation. I still think checking is better though.

-eric

[Sushiglutton]

I think u should re-raise pf. You have a good chance of getting this HU, with probably the (slightly) best hand. The rest is ok.

[DavidC]

Are you a little concerned that someone that posted UTG will call regardless of it being 2 bets cold to him, now that he's invested in the pot already?

Does that make a difference as to whether or not it's good to 3b?

Edit, but thanks for your comments so far, Eric. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Aaron W.]

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Are you a little concerned that someone that posted UTG will call regardless of it being 2 bets cold to him, now that he's invested in the pot already?

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Players are likely to call one after posting preflop closing the action and in position, but calling two cold after posting is often enough to drive out the junky hands (which are the ones you want to drive out with 33 because they're almost all overcards to your pair).

Without UTG poster, I like calling and auto-raising the flop with small pairs because of the bluff value of making other small pairs fold.

[LukeSLTS]

Having an UTG post does not give you the odds you are looking for to flop a set but it does make me want to three bet more.