Largest Lead Prop Question

[BRDSR]

The same stats for the Suns:

Average difference between final score point differential and largest lead of the game is 6.95.

In games decided by less than 10 points, the average difference between the final score point differential and largest lead of the game is 8.92. 5 of 39 (12.8%) had a largest lead of greater than 19.

In games decided by between 8 and 11 points, the average difference final score point differential and the largest lead is 7.76. 4 of 17 (23.5%) contained a largest lead of 20 or more.

I like the data. I think the percentage of times that the largest lead exceeds 20 is most accurately calculated using games decided by 8-11 points, and if that's true, even allowing for some error, it should only happen 1 out 4 times that the Lakers and Suns play.

I'm not gonna risk 5 units, that was slightly sarcastic. But I am gonna put 2.5 on the under for this prop bet. Wish me luck!

[hedgie43]

BRDSR,

What you need to do is look at historical point spreads and get a probability distribution of the largest leads for each different spread, not take the average difference between the final score and the largest lead.

[BRDSR]

I think that would be slightly better, although what better way to find the true spread than the final score? The logic depends on determining whether the spread is true (or which side it favors).

In any case, the other reason I didn't use that data was that I don't know where to find it. Where would it be?

[umaga]

It's not just "slightly better", it's the way to approach the problem.

goldsheet.com and a few other places have historic spreads and totals.

[hedgie43]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that would be slightly better, although what better way to find the true spread than the final score?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? The final score is not an indication of the true spread.

Goldsheet.com and Covers.com are good for historical lines.

[rjp]

Don't forget about the total... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[BRDSR]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not just "slightly better", it's the way to approach the problem.

goldsheet.com and a few other places have historic spreads and totals.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right. Don't really know what I was thinking (except implicitly pissed at myself for spending an hour doing it wrong).

In games where either the Lakers were 8-11 point dogs or the Suns were 8-11 point favorites last year (these are mostly Suns games), the largest lead in the game was less than 20 in 18 out of 28 games (64.3%), or about 11 percent lower than the result doing it the wrong way, but still better than the 53.5% that I need to be profitable. By a pretty good margin.

Also worth noting that in two games between the Suns and Lakers last year where the spread was between 8 and 11, the total largest lead was 10 and 16 respectively.

Still feel good about the bet, thanks for pointing me in a better direction.

[n2p]

where is this prop at?

[BRDSR]

PlayersOnly. It's a small but easy-to-beat poker site that happens to have sports betting, so I'm getting my feet wet. Doing well so far, but it's a pretty dumb string of luck. Haven't done much with prop bets so far, but it's got a decent list on nationally televised games.

[n2p]

I like the bet FWIW, was going to put a small amount on it if it was at a book I had money on. GL