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#11
11-02-2007, 12:51 PM
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Re: $1/2 DEEP, Set v flush board & aggression.
Bump. Cmon folks this was a big pot. Did I play it ok up til river? Is this really an easy fold?
Do we not ask ourselves if villain has the nuts why is he not betting for value? This is what doesn't feel right about villains river bet in particular. 
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#13
11-02-2007, 12:54 PM
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Re: $1/2 DEEP, Set v flush board & aggression.
[ QUOTE ]
Bump. Cmon folks this was a big pot. Did I play it ok up til river? Is this really an easy fold? Do we not ask ourselves if villain has the nuts why is he not betting for value? This is what doesn't feel right about villains river bet in particular. [/ QUOTE ] hes a fish given his pf stats and they overbet their good hands all the time on the river, and obviously his agression factor over 86 hands is irrelevant.
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#16
11-02-2007, 01:00 PM
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Re: $1/2 DEEP, Set v flush board & aggression.
[ QUOTE ]
and obviously his agression factor over 86 hands is irrelevant. [/ QUOTE ] Gah, stop saying this. I've never ever had even close to 0.5 af over an almost 100 hand sample.
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#17
11-02-2007, 06:47 PM
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Re: $1/2 DEEP, Set v flush board & aggression.
Ok I decided to Pokerstove this.
Against villains tightest range being the nuts I have 34% EV. Add in all combinations of 55, 99 this increase to 44%. Figure in AA, KK, AK with nut Diamond draws this increases further to 55%. Still an easy fold?
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#18
11-02-2007, 06:55 PM
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Re: $1/2 DEEP, Set v flush board & aggression.
[ QUOTE ]
Ok I decided to Pokerstove this. Against villains tightest range being the nuts I have 34% EV. Add in all combinations of 55, 99 this increase to 44%. Figure in AA, KK, AK with nut Diamond draws this increases further to 55%. Still an easy fold? [/ QUOTE ] stoving it isn't really that helpful in this postflop analysis because he plays AA/KK and like AK w/ a diamond this strong on the river very rarely. Those hands are also rare b/c of preflop. and lol at having 34% equity against the nuts on the river :-)
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#20
11-02-2007, 07:40 PM
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Re: $1/2 DEEP, Set v flush board & aggression.
Ouch just Stoved it again for the river giving villain a mega tight range. Best I can come up with is 28% throwing in 99 (with diamond draw) and a busted AA(diamond).
Guess I should have folded.
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