50nl: JJ in 3bet pot, I hate this situation

[Chomp]

Boz, I think you are way over-thinking and FPS'ing this hand.

You are assuming light 3 betting, you are assuming light double-barrelling, and you are advocating moves that only get called on the occasions villain has better hands (your preflop 4b line and flop crai line). This seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

Also, if we pay off with JJ here, we are ruining all the times we b/b/b our premium hands and get villains to call down with 99-JJ, which is obviously pretty often.

I like hero's line if he folded turn (and the fold isn't close IMO).

US - good to see you posting in uNL.

[scallop]

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cliff notes: call flop, fold turn. pf is fine.

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basically this is entirely what I would have written had US not written it first.

Think about it this way. He c-bets all his overcard airs, but he rarely double barrells them. When we see him double barrell we know he has an overpair, or a something better.

We only beat TT.

I would fold the turn, and be happy with the way I played the hand.

[bozzer]

gah, i hate it when i'm really bullish about a hand then everyone pops up and says 'er no'.

firstly about my assumptions, i am assuming some significant chance (25%?) of him 3betting light here*. if he's not then i'm fine with folding pf. i'm fine with folding at any point in the hand really.

secondly, i am clearly not as confident as everyone else that he never 2 barrels with a hand we beat. basically i see him as fairly tag-fishy rather than incredibly loose-passivey, that might be where the difference is coming from.

my broad brush thought is that calling OOP and hoping he'll stop betting is generally spewy, especially in a big pot. i'm amazed everyone is putting a third of their stack in only to fold if they have to put any more in.

hopefully later i'll have a chance to look at this in some more detail and test whether those broad rules hold true here. i have a feeling this is going to come down to people's opinion of RIO though.

*i think i mean the chance that he is a light 3bettor in this spot is like 25% ish? not that his chance of holding a 'light' 3betting hand here is 25%.

[NL Newbie]

First of all this spot is probably -EV, here are the reasons why i think this.

Firstly we're NOT set mining - So i factor out when we hit a set since we have to play postflop to win money if we call the 3bet(We're playing for hand value reasons, not to improve!)

3bet pot we're likly behind.
OOP - Its expensive we must check to extract value yet with that comes no protection. By checking we open ourselves up to 2barrel bluffs, scare card bluffs, giving huge free cards.


Here are the lines are there merits IMO, please debate with me.

Check call, Check fold - This line extracts maximum value from the cbet which is where our value comes from in this spot/type hand(Assuming we're not set mining which as you can see from stacks is -EV due to not having the cash to set mine).


Check call, bet
This line gets the cbet, then bets for protection. The problem is villans range and since i've already said we're behind(AA/KK/QQ(18 combos) alot it (AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AK/AQ (57combos). This gives us protection from the free card play and gets value should he call anyway.

However due to pot size, it essentially pot comits us but WERE AHEAD OF 2/3rd his range(This is dependant on him having this range and cbetting all of it).



Check raise flop
Not sure if we fold to shove, AK/AQ folds, AA/KK/QQ should shove but does TT shove or 99? If we assume they dont then this is cool.

How much to raise to? Enough to make him fold AK/AQ but not so much that we spew when he does shove his AA/KK/QQ.

I actually like this, but forgot the pot set/bet size so cant comment till i post this and refresh the page sorry.





The problem comes down to maths - We need to calculate(when he folds the turn vs all we beat(AK/AQ/TT) but calls when we're ahead(AA/KK/QQ).

So we need to win enough by taking this line to makeup for the AA/KK/QQ times we lose. Then factor in the AK/AQ hitting on the turn anyway, A scare card hitting on the turn making us fold etc.


IMO overall if you calculated this, it would be -EV and thats even if he 3bets TT/AQ which is a BIG assumption. I also dont think we get into +EV when we do hit our set(We win a cbet, stack AA/KK/QQ most of the time yet AK/AQ fold to reduce the winnings)

Thoughts? counter arguements? what did i miss? etc. Thanks all

[NL Newbie]

Ok so i finally got to view the pot size since i couldnt whilst i made the above post (IE went crazy).


Mathmatically we're ahead of the the AK/AQ combos but using my assumptions i'd say his range is AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK and maybe not even JJ IMO.


which gives us 18 lose to combos and 16 beat, 1 split combo.
If you add in AQ it obviously flys up.

So using this range the C/r the flop doesn't seem cool. Thats why i hate the preflop call, we're just behind to loads.

Since you called you HAVE to pay postflop to make up for the money you put in when playing for "hand value" as opposed to "set mining value". Which is the basic error in this hand IMO.


So we're basically coinflipping the AA/KK/QQ/AK range and want to call up to a pot size bet on the flop.

On the turn we're OOP so induce bluffs/2 street barrels and give away free cards(reducing the EV of this check call, check line).

The check call, bet line is expensive - You need to estimate the free card EV(We lose to A/K 12% by betting we win this back, but we can't really bet small - So risking half pot bet seems -EV).


So in short i like Check call, check fold.
However if fold pre, remember set mining isnt profitable so to win back that loss you MUST extract post flop.

in short - Preflop -EV call makes this hand a spewer vs a tight range, he MUST have a wide range. I see no read to imply this.

Paranoia is a common problem and why nits get paid off "OHHH HES BLUFFING ME THIS TIME, OMG [censored] HE HAS AA WTF...dam nit"

[Check_The_Nuts]

NL Newbie,

Your posts are really long.

I mostly agree with US. However there are some I check/fold flop to but bet turn if its checked through. Obvious reasons why I think this is better (ie. they aren't cbetting this flop >80% of the time).

[kindergartencop]

i think unknown soldier described it really well. c/c c/f i think is the best way to have any chance to not commit yourself when crushed yet still get some value. i fold turn and am completely fine with how i played it.

[Unknown Soldier]

bozzer, his stats suggests he's not too agro pf (difference between vpip and pfr is quite large). I don't think you'll see double barreling especially in 3b pots (it's more expensive) from tags at 50nl too often. Not to say it never happens, but it's unlikely (i think i mentioned that before).

Your thoughts are fine in an agro 600nl game, JJ is the nuts there, but not here. However, 4b then folding is just terrible anywhere.

[bozzer]

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However, 4b then folding is just terrible anywhere.

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well heremy plan would be to 4bet to $18 and then fold to a shove getting 34% pot odds and with 36% equity against a QQ+,AK range! lol

now trying to work out how wide he has to 3b for 4betting to be profitable...[/b]

[Unknown Soldier]

ask yourself why you are 4b JJ before you consider doing it. Think about his range before you 4b and his range that he continues with after you 4b. You should see it's a bad idea.