NL400: AJs, deep OOP

[VictorEnriq]

I think xorbie is spot on. I'd raise that turn all day. As played... is it possible for this player to make that river bet trying to represent a busted flush draw? I think it is.

[Jlow1331]

He leads out the entire way. His range could be anything from 89, 88, A8, AQ. The 9 does not really represent a solid bluffing hand.

I would folded river to that bet.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
heros hand is pretty transparent here, villian has to know hero can't have anything that really wants to call that much on the end with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Transparent as in "it's clear I had the nut FD on the flop and have tp," or transparent as in "I have a draw that blanked or a marginal hand like a Q." I agree with the latter, but not the former. As we've already discussed, most people seem to like 3-betting aces preflop, so I think he discounts hands like AJ-AK in my range.

[danjohncochane]

Hmmm i like a c/r on the turn and call a shove since were deep and you would be showing mega strength he has to have a very big hand himself to continue. And obv if he does we still have outs.

[stackingboxes]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm i like a c/r on the turn and call a shove since were deep and you would be showing mega strength he has to have a very big hand himself to continue. And obv if he does we still have outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats pretty hot I gotta admit, as long as V isn't one of those guys who'll think he c/r twice, wtf, no way he is doing that with a set, i'm calling.

and OP, river call is pretty bad.

betting turn is way better than check call.

[FireStorm]

Just calling preflop is fine, no reason to jam OOP with AJs in this spot. As played, line seems fine, fold river.

[jk3a]

Without any significant history, I can't imagine calling the river. It certainly looks like the only real hand he can have is AQ, but that certainly doesn't mean he couldn't flat a set to your flop raise with plans of shoving non [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turns.

I think the turn is the real interesting spot though. With 200 in the pot and 750 behind, I think getting all the money in would be really bad in general. We really can't expect him to put it all in with a worse flush draw like ever. I really like the turn c/c the more I think about it.

Like I said before, I'm giving him credit on the river. Even if he's bluffing here, it's a small % of his range that can be bluffing and we don't know if he even would bluff.

[jk3a]

I changed my mind, I think you have to lead the turn. We almost never get bluff/semi-bluff raised on the turn and the only real hand he'll show up with here that can raise us is AQ. He certainly is calling the flop c/r with a much wider range than just AQ.

Think of it from a balance perspective also. What other hands are you c/c this turn with? If he were to flat the turn and we missed the river we have to check and make a difficult decision if he bets. I would lead the turn for like 125-150.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
I changed my mind, I think you have to lead the turn. We almost never get bluff/semi-bluff raised on the turn and the only real hand he'll show up with here that can raise us is AQ. He certainly is calling the flop c/r with a much wider range than just AQ.

Think of it from a balance perspective also. What other hands are you c/c this turn with? If he were to flat the turn and we missed the river we have to check and make a difficult decision if he bets. I would lead the turn for like 125-150.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your initial post summed up my thoughts on the turn pretty well. I didn't lead because I felt I blow a lot of hands away that I beat (the Qs) and might fold a flush draw if he has one (that would be a shame). C/R all in means I always get it in bad when he calls. And the idea bet/folding TP and the NFD made me sad [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

However, I'm coming around on a turn bet. You're right, I'm never checking a big hand on this turn, and I would have led the turn if my hand didn't improve. Maybe c/c really did narrow my range to the NFD... hmm.

On the river, I could only see one hand that made perfect sense (AQ). However, I couldn't get over the fact that my hand looks so weak as things played out, and his bet size seemed too large if he's thinking hard about my range.

[Novles]

Anything wrong w/ c/c flop? Seems that w/ a c/r, most TAGs will put you on air/draw a huge portion of the time since if you're playing an aggro game, you are really only repping 44/88. Do you flat AQ/KQ pre and if so, do you ever c/r them on this flop this deep? Dunno, seems bad if you do.

Because of this, I think he's [censored] w/ you a lot of the time, making it a call on the river. I like villain's bet size with whatever he has.