20/40 River - Page 2

Surf · #11 03-05-2006, 06:41 PM

I bet the river, because I expect TAGy opponents to fold most hands besides Jd / Qd to a c/r, so I can't expect to get a full 2 bets extra when I land my c/r, probably only 1, and I'd really hate to see this checked through. SB giving up looks like perhaps a set or small flush, and UTGs hand range isn't defined enough it looks like AK/AQs, might even be AA, so no telling if he has a diamond or not.

Also, I c-c the flop. A raise for value is dubious at best, and we certainly don't have fold equity... I think check-call and c/r when we hit is better.

Surf

aflaba temp · #12 03-05-2006, 07:07 PM

To me it looks like UTG has AA, TT or AK. Niether contains a diamond. I don't see him betting. So I would have bet in your spot.

ALL1N · #13 03-05-2006, 07:11 PM

imitation/aflaba.. are you guys misreading the hand?

ALL1N · #14 03-05-2006, 07:13 PM

buck, are you misreading the hand (only one opponent to act behind)?

*TT* · #15 03-05-2006, 07:25 PM

Bet the river. I like a check-call on the flop, and in some scenarios a donk bet on the flop, but I don't like the check-raise that much. You are tying your opponents to their hands, nobody believes you have a made flush, and one (inf not both) of your opponents probably have an A.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Trix · #16 03-05-2006, 07:30 PM

UTG has Qd or Jd alot here, typically QQd, AQd or JJd, which means that he probably will either bet if you check or call if you bet.
SB however is alot more likely to put in a bet if you check than if you bet if he holds a set, which he does alot of the time with this action. I think that would be the main factor in deciding as UTG may not call the CR anyway.

Hattifnatt · #17 03-05-2006, 07:39 PM

Of course you should bet this river.

Lurker4 · #18 03-05-2006, 07:47 PM

I usually bet the river in this spot but I kind of like a check/raise...I'd put UTG squarely on QQ/JJ with a diamond, as AK/AA/TT probably pumps the flop harder when you checkraise to charge SB's pair/diamond/gutter more. I think he releases KK/QQ/JJ no diamond on the turn, if not the flop, either to your checkraise or SB's call/3-bet since he knows one of his set outs is likely not good, and he is easily behind right now. I think SB has a set or small/medium diamonds that just got counterfeited on the river by a likely higher flush. If you bet, both UTG and SB will usually call, but if you check, you get UTG's bet and SB's call and possibly another crying call out of at least one of them.

Another thing to consider is that if SB has low/medium diamonds or a set, and you bet, UTG calls, you might not get an overcall from SB, where if its checked to UTG and SB is first to act after UTG bets, he will near always call with any hand that was strong enough to call/3-bet flop.

ALL1N · #19 03-06-2006, 07:36 PM

Okok, the flop. When UTG bet and SB just called, I felt that there was a pretty solid chance I was ahead (since I'm holding 2 K's and UTG's capping range should be something like AA-TT, AK, AQs). The CR was to stop UTG checking behind on the turn (with QQd/JJd etc), which could force me to miss some value. These were my thoughts as I played the hand. However, the fact is that since I'd be betting the turn to stop a freecard, I could easily get raised by an A that decided to wait to see if the turn was a diamond, by either player, or UTG could 3-bet and isolate as many ppl said. Yes, the flop CR is bad!

The river. Betting here is missing a megaton of value, IMO. Given the fairly standard capping range of an UTG TAG and the way he played the hand, he pretty much has to have a diamond. Also as a few people pointed out, SB will call heaps more vs UTG's bet than vs my bet + overcall.

Surf · #20 03-06-2006, 07:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]

The river. Betting here is missing a megaton of value, IMO. Given the fairly standard capping range of an UTG TAG and the way he played the hand, he pretty much has to have a diamond. Also as a few people pointed out, SB will call heaps more vs UTG's bet than vs my bet + overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why can't he have AK again? If he's not just a TAG, but a player you know personally or reads hands well enough, say, to dump AK to SBs flop 3bet i'm with you. If it's just some guy with TAGy stats i think AK is just as likely as Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q in terms of how he'd play it. Combinatorically you are slightly in favor of him having a diamond but when he checks through you get 0 bets which means you have to be right _alot_ and being right has to actually get you more bets than normal.

Surf