$114: AT bubble w/ shorties - Page 2

RexWoo · #11 10-23-2007, 10:23 AM

If you fold, BB calls 100% right ?
If he wins, the new BB (UTG) has to call a push 100% of the time right ?
Then you get your chance to double.

So well, you're not strictly guaranted the money but have a better shot that the probable 55-65% to win you get here when calling, imo.

DDBeast · #12 10-23-2007, 10:50 AM

Seems like it has to be a fold. Doubling up only puts you at 5bb, which still isn't great. For you to lose, 2 players have to win all ins and you have to lose yours.

StregaChess · #13 10-23-2007, 11:03 AM

My gut was to call, given that he's pushing so wide.
My luck is if I don't shortie doubles up and I go OTM.

However lots of smart people say to fold so what do I know?

EroTheMad · #14 10-23-2007, 11:19 AM

You can read harrington vol III for explanation.

Luisgallo · #15 10-23-2007, 11:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like it has to be a fold. Doubling up only puts you at 5bb, which still isn't great. For you to lose, 2 players have to win all ins and you have to lose yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

DD I do think having 5BB in this context is a huge advantage because is almost certainly locking the money and a huge lead vs third.

PIPB might not push over one of the other villains just to keep the bubble alive.

Luisgallo · #16 10-23-2007, 11:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You can read harrington vol III for explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did not notice there is a section on high buy ins online SNGs!

BAN!

DDBeast · #17 10-23-2007, 12:12 PM

I might try to run some numbers later, but you are correct that doubling up pretty much locks up 3rd and leaves a very good chance at 2nd, and a small chance at 1st. However, the difference between 4th and 3rd is huge, while the difference between 2nd and 3rd is negligible. ATo isn't even a 2-1 fav against NE2 cards, if he is pushing that wide. I'd rather take my (several) chances of the other 2 busting/doubling up on my BB.

Luisgallo · #18 10-23-2007, 01:25 PM

I just run the numbers, if PIPB pushes 100% ATo gives 0.4$ so basically calling or folding is more or less equivalent.

If PIPB pushes anything better than 100% (which I doubt) is a fold.

Ditch Digger · #19 10-23-2007, 01:38 PM

I really doubt button is pushing 100%. IMO, pushing 100% from the button knowing that BB is callling with almost any hand is really bad.

Luisgallo · #20 10-23-2007, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really doubt button is pushing 100%. IMO, pushing 100% from the button knowing that BB is callling with almost any hand is really bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

why should he call with any hand given opponents' stack sizes?