again - Page 2

shane88888 · #11 10-21-2007, 12:21 AM

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I don't think this is a good spot to check the turn. Your hand is too vulnerable and you don't have an easy river decision if you check the turn.

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Isn't much of the point of a turn check to give you an easy river decision?

Committing one BB to see showdown in a 4 BB pot is easier than possibly committing 3 BB's to see showdown in the same pot.

Hobbs. · #12 10-21-2007, 12:33 AM

"Folding the winner is the plane crashing into the mountain."

Come on this is just a silly comment. Once we bet the turn the decision to call down or fold is very likely a neutral EV situation (imo -EV, but much more info on villain is needed to decide one way or the other).

The main problem I see with checking against a solid villain like this is that TAGs are much less likely imo to make river bluffs after the turn gets checked through in situations like this. So we're likely putting ourselves in a negative EV situation by insiting on seeing a SD via checking the turn behind. Whereas betting the turn allows us to realize a look of equity as we are c/r'ed nowhere near as often as villain folds or calls.

shane88888 · #13 10-21-2007, 01:09 AM

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"Folding the winner is the plane crashing into the mountain."

Come on this is just a silly comment. Once we bet the turn the decision to call down or fold is very likely a neutral EV situation (imo -EV, but much more info on villain is needed to decide one way or the other).

The main problem I see with checking against a solid villain like this is that TAGs are much less likely imo to make river bluffs after the turn gets checked through in situations like this. So we're likely putting ourselves in a negative EV situation by insiting on seeing a SD via checking the turn behind. Whereas betting the turn allows us to realize a look of equity as we are c/r'ed nowhere near as often as villain folds or calls.

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If a turn check is awful, then folding the winner is worse than awful. The plane crash is best way I know to express worse than awful. Plus, it's from a pretty amusing movie.

Villain is 30/20/3. He is a pain in the ass, and definitely aggro enough to bluff at the river or maybe even value-bet (in his mind) AK. But it's not whether or not I pick up an extra bet here that is my primary concern. My primary concern is the four bets that are already in the pot.

I disagree that you'll get a fold or call far more often than check-raised. In the current games, after villain just calls flop, I expect to get check-raised by a 30/20/3 at least as often as I get a fold or call. At some tables, I expect to get check-raised more often than I get called. I expect a significant number of the check-raises to be semi-bluffs.

By checking the turn, it's possible we miss a bet of value (and lose the pot the times we're outdrawn on the river). This is partially offset by the times we pick off bluffs. All in all, this is still better than being moved off the whole pot on the turn, when we could have seen showdown at the same price.

Leader · #14 10-21-2007, 01:17 AM

I'm folding here. Most guys will c/r the flop with a draw. Paying attention is really important for playing well in these spots. Without a read here, you're really in tough shape.

Against an unknown this depends more on how your game plays generally then any theory you could apply to this spot.

MacGuyV · #15 10-21-2007, 01:30 AM

OMFG I have a lower turn AF than almost everybody on tpt.. Maybe that's just because I'm really bad at flopping pairs... When do you ever bet the turn w/out the nuts if you don't bet this? All these reasons to check are cop-outs to make an -ev move for the purposes of avoiding a mere potentially uncomfortable spot; which is the micro forum equivalent of not 3betting AK/JJ pf oop.

efficacy · #16 10-21-2007, 02:34 AM

I would call down and make a note. There are a rediculous number of draw combos on this board. By my calculations, we are ahead of his range about 25% of the time, and when we are behind he has about 12 outs on average.

Another option would be to call turn and fold to a really bad river card, like 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], or J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Even if the call down is slightly -EV, I think getting a piece of information on this opponent is worth the price.

sethypooh21 · #17 10-21-2007, 05:21 AM

I have to reiterate my earlier point that the reason we are in such a sucky turn spot is preflop. I just get don't the purpose of the 3bet. If the pot is 5 bb on the turn instead of 7, we have an easy "fold, next hand" decision.

efficacy · #18 10-21-2007, 05:39 AM

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I have to reiterate my earlier point that the reason we are in such a sucky turn spot is preflop. I just get don't the purpose of the 3bet. If the pot is 5 bb on the turn instead of 7, we have an easy "fold, next hand" decision.

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I don't think we have an easy fold if the action goes

preflop: SB raises, Hero calls
flop: SB bets, Hero calls
turn: SB bets

SB's hand is still very undefined, no?

sethypooh21 · #19 10-21-2007, 06:12 AM

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I have to reiterate my earlier point that the reason we are in such a sucky turn spot is preflop. I just get don't the purpose of the 3bet. If the pot is 5 bb on the turn instead of 7, we have an easy "fold, next hand" decision.

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I don't think we have an easy fold if the action goes

preflop: SB raises, Hero calls
flop: SB bets, Hero calls
turn: SB bets

SB's hand is still very undefined, no?

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Well yeah, if we play the flop like a wuss. But on this board, fairly certain I call PF, raise this flop, probably check behind the turn because A) card is ugly but not ugly enough to feel good about folding and B) This guy will make me pay 3 to see SD with a pretty wide range