SB defense with KQs

[JJack]

[ QUOTE ]
*Grunch*

I would play all hand c/c.

River b/f I think is mistake cus if we assume villain's rage is:
TT+,AQs+,AQo+

then when we bet he will fold all we would win (AQos)
we only beat QQ with is 3 combination (we hold one Q) and JJ (6 combination)

If we are behind (most probably) we are behind of AKos (12+4), KK (3), AA(6), TT(3)

So we are ahead and we will probably call if we bet = 9
we are behind and we just lose 1 BB and risk being bluff = 28

So at river we are about 3:1 underdog

[/ QUOTE ]

If we are behind (most probably) we are behind of AKos (6+2), KK (1), AA(6), TT(3)

ok so when i improve my math will be:

(

So we are ahead and we will probably call if we bet = 9
we are behind and we just lose 1 BB and risk being bluff = 18

So at river we are about 2:1 underdog (If he dont call with air like A high)

[Bulletproof Monk]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really guys think that villain will call this river with A hight?

[/ QUOTE ]

there is some % of the time he calls with A hi and there is some % of the time he folds A hi

[JJack]

*g*

I also more like just c/c flop.
I dont know is my thinking good but i try to explain my thought process.

If villain has AQos or AJs then we get more value when he c-bet also turn UI.
I use pot equity to substantiate it.
When we raise flop we protect our hand from 3 outer.
Pot at flop when he bets is 10 SB. When we raise he will correctly fold hand and when he is ahead he will win 2 SB more cus he 3bet flop and we probably need call down.
OK pot is 10 SB. We just call and not protect so if he has 3 outs then we risk 6% of the pot (number of outs * 2 = pot equity at turn). At turn if he makes semi-bluff c-bet with AJs or AQos then pot is 5 BB + his c-bet so its 5:1. So when he will make c-bet at turn we get 16% of the pot (5:1 is like 8 outs and 8 outs * 2 = 16 pot equity)

So we risk 6% of the pot when we dont protect our pot and we have chance to induce c-bet at turn and earn 16% of the pot.
When we assume that villain will c-bet turn UI only 50% of the time then its 8% of pot so we still have profit risking only 6% at flop.

[Sushiglutton]

[ QUOTE ]
nh.

if he will call down with QQ or JJ or AQ I like raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if he 3-bets we do what with potentially 5 outs (vs AA)?

[mackthefork]

You're behind

8 x AK
6 x AA
1 x AQs?
3 x TT?

18 combinations

and ahead of

3 x QQ
6 x JJ
3 x AQs?

12 combinations

So you got 40% equity on the end, a lot of people will raise AA on the end, some AK, AQ spades obviously, but you need a specific read to know if he will ever raise a hand you beat, I dunno I think I prefer a check call, but I suck.

Basically I think folding in a pot this size would be a mistake with TP against a solid player.

Regards Mack

[beyazkus]

[ QUOTE ]
But KK has 1 combo not 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

so true [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

with regard to the WA/WB line which seems to be supported by the more frequent posters (bennyhana, Fadook, Bulletproof Monk) i get the feeling that reading sshe for a third time might me due for me to remind myself of these scenarios...

[Smurph64]

I like check/raise on the turn myself but this works.