JTs 6/12 LHE advice on the turn - Page 2

threeducks · #11 10-19-2007, 01:01 PM

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It was pretty loose passive behind me. I play in Northern California ...

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Jesse (James?), I think you play at AJ's mostly, correct. You sometimes venture over to the Oaks as well?

mntndrew · #12 10-19-2007, 01:09 PM

The SB has 6 clean outs and the tainted spades. It's enough to raise 4 players for value if you're confident you won't be 3-bet. If you say he has 7 outs on average, he's around 28% to make his hand by the river; he's only putting in 20% of the bets on this street. He can look ahead to the river because he's definitely going to be getting proper odds to call almost any turn bet.

To Jesse... (I was going to put this in another thread, but I think this thread probably has all the answers it needs now.)

Although I agree that you of course have an equity advantage over the two players in so far, you have six players left. They will likely come in with hands that you'd throw away to three bets that could have you dominated like ATo. If there are players that will start coming in with their top 15-20% of hands -- which I think is likely given you've 3-bet a straddler -- your position advantage could be greatly nullified.

I might go down to something like ATo, A9s, KQo, KJs and pocket pairs down to around 77 when 3-betting here. I might add a few more big card hands in later position when those are the only two players in so far or cold call with some more speculative hands if many players had entered the pot. In MP1, I personally wouldn't open up that much -- maybe a mistake, but that's what I'd do.

jesse8888 · #13 10-19-2007, 01:12 PM

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It was pretty loose passive behind me. I play in Northern California ...

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Jesse (James?), I think you play at AJ's mostly, correct. You sometimes venture over to the Oaks as well?

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I have not ventured to the Oaks and play almost exclusively at AJs these days.

gobbledygeek · #14 10-19-2007, 01:12 PM

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I think a ck/r with a OESD on a 2 flush flop with no cards of that suit is a bit donkeyshish?

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I woulda played hand the exact same way villain did, except bet/3bet the turn. On the flop the preflop aggressor is to his left so he can assume a bet. With 3 opponents trapped in the pot I'm thinking he's got a slight equity advantage (it's possible that all his outs are clean, moreso with no raise from late position).

FWIW, I play the hand the exact same way you did; preflop I'm 50/50 on calling/raising so I'm guessing it's a close play.

PorkchopDJG · #15 10-19-2007, 01:17 PM

I like your turn bet because he checked the turn after checkraising the flop which means there is a good chance he had a big flush draw and missed on the turn. If that was the case giving a free card on the turn to that many opponents on that drawy a board would be a big mistake.
I would call down non scary river.

jesse8888 · #16 10-19-2007, 01:17 PM

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Although I agree that you of course have an equity advantage over the two players in so far, you have six players left. They will likely come in with hands that you'd throw away to three bets that could have you dominated like ATo. If there are players that will start coming in with their top 15-20% of hands -- which I think is likely given you've 3-bet a straddler -- your position advantage could be greatly nullified.

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I forgot to mention the table was 8 handed at the time with one guy walking behind me. That improves my position slightly.

I agree that my raise isn't exactly a big money maker, but it certainly is fun to play big pots. I also always try to make non-standard plays at the table when I think it's close to confuse/fluster the other players. Finally, and this is a fault of mine....I can't resist the temptation to put myself in a potentially tricky situation post flop. I just have to get up to that 15/30 game soon, and it seems this hand presented a good learning situation [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

threeducks · #17 10-19-2007, 01:42 PM

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The SB has 6 clean outs and the tainted spades. It's enough to raise 4 players for value if you're confident you won't be 3-bet. If you say he has 7 outs on average, he's around 28% to make his hand by the river; he's only putting in 20% of the bets on this street. He can look ahead to the river because he's definitely going to be getting proper odds to call almost any turn bet.

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This is one concept that I struggle with and that is the EV of the bets going in on this betting round. Granted he has a good hand and 28% is a lot of pot equity against top pair or an over pair. But, SB has a draw and say it is 7-1 to make his hand on the next card. From a pure pot equity equation I think a ck/r is -EV on this betting round.

It is a easy call for him getting 7-1 on the next card. But, I have a problem wrapping my head around a ck/r here. Two cards to come then 3.5-1 odds to make his hand and 1-4 (assuming the BB calls) is most likely correct. BB folds and he is getting 1-3 (he puts in 2 bets and we put in 6 bets).

I ran pokerstove with three hands. If someone has a flush draw he is only 17%. No flush draw he is 28% or 3.6-1 to the river.

Board: 6s Jh 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.542% 37.54% 00.00% 339 0.00 { JdTd }
Hand 1: 17.054% 17.05% 00.00% 154 0.00 { 9c8c }
Hand 2: 45.404% 45.40% 00.00% 410 0.00 { Qs3s }
Hand 3:
Hand 4:

Raising with a draw is something I do if I have bet odds on this betting round. If I have bet equity I raise. e.g. flush draw is 4-1 and there are 5 villains, I raise. Maybe I need to think about this some more.

Thanks

threeducks · #18 10-19-2007, 01:47 PM

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It was pretty loose passive behind me. I play in Northern California ...

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Jesse (James?), I think you play at AJ's mostly, correct. You sometimes venture over to the Oaks as well?

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I have not ventured to the Oaks and play almost exclusively at AJs these days.

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I play AJs sometimes. Stricky 6/12. I live in the east bay and Oaks is closer, 8 miles. It is 26 miles to AJs, 33 to CalGrand and 35 to Bay 101, 39 to Garden City. I don't play at Lucky and San Pablo. 94 miles to Cache Creek.

Let's stay off the same tables, huh?

mntndrew · #19 10-19-2007, 02:13 PM

You've stoved his near worst case scenario, with three of his outs dead and an immediate re-draw to a flush even if he makes his straight. This, of course, is why he needs to discount his outs.

The six non-[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] straight outs are clean, although potentially susceptible to a re-draw to the flush. If you say you're against a flush draw half the time, then his two [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] straight outs are discounted to just one.

If he's up against A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (hey, someone has to play the donkey here), he actually has the most equity of all the hands.

You're considering his odds of making his hand on the turn, which are somewhere between 6/45 and 8/47. His odds of making his hand by the river are nearly twice that, though, and that is enough to give him the pot equity needed to raise the field for value IF he's confident he can put in 20% of the bets on this street.

threeducks · #20 10-19-2007, 02:26 PM

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You've stoved his near worst case scenario, with three of his outs dead and an immediate re-draw to a flush even if he makes his straight. This, of course, is why he needs to discount his outs.

The six non-[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] straight outs are clean, although potentially susceptible to a re-draw to the flush. If you say you're against a flush draw half the time, then his two [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] straight outs are discounted to just one.

If he's up against A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (hey, someone has to play the donkey here), he actually has the most equity of all the hands.

You're considering his odds of making his hand on the turn, which are somewhere between 6/45 and 8/47. His odds of making his hand by the river are nearly twice that, though, and that is enough to give him the pot equity needed to raise the field for value IF he's confident he can put in 20% of the bets on this street.

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So basically you are using the 2 cards to come odds when deciding to raise or not. I don't have a problem with that if that is the correct approach. He was not last to act and the BB might have folded. That was a chance he was taking. Well, it is gambling after all.

Thanks - best case is he has 3.6-1 (28%) - I will check the books as well but I like your answer.